Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
131 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...SUB-TROPICAL JET OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF AREA WILL KEEP CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA UNDER SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
BUT SOME WEAK IMPULSES RIDING ALONG THE JET MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
INTERIOR COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AND MIGRATE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH LATEST GFS/ETA SHOWING MODERATE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SLIDING INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY BROAD RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ...ALONG WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT...WILL DECREASE CHANCES OF RAIN TO 30 PERCENT
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND 20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. BUT
LATEST X-SECT ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE ATLANTIC BECOMES BROADER AND
STRONGER THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN WITH
ITS AXIS STRETCHING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
KEEP MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN WILL HELP IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT-FRI)...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR
SUN NIGHT WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AND A SFC INVERTED TROF OFF THE E COAST OF FL. THE UPPER LOW
WILL SHIFT SW TOWARDS A POSITION NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS MON
NIGHT...WHEREAS THE SFC TROF AMPLIFIES. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE
EXPECTING THE BEGINNING OF THE RAINY SEASON...THESE FEATURES WILL
MEAN DRY AIR FILTERING BACK INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. MOST MODELS
INDICATE THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN ITS POSITION OFF THE E COAST OF FL
THRU WED NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE MODELS SPLIT...WITH THE ECMWF AND
DGEX INDICATING CONTINUED SLOW MOVEMENT AS A BLOCKING PATTERN SETS
UP OVER THE E CAST... WHEREAS THE GFS SHIFTS THE LOW NE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROF COMING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK.

BECAUSE OF THE DRIER FLOW ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE 20 PCT OR LESS. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CHANCE THAT UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT OVER THE STATE AS THE
DGEX SUGGESTS. OTHERWISE...REDUCED SKY COVER WILL TEMPS AROUND
NORMAL TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WATERS AND SLIDE FURTHER SOUTH ONLY TO BE REINFORCED BY STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE DURING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHEN MARINERS
MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF INCREASING WINDS AND DETERIORATING
SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN EXCEPT FOR AROUND SCT
TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. WEAK WRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN THE STORMS WILL
PUSH INLAND BY LATE AFTN. ONLY THING TO WATCH FOR IS ANY
BACKBUILDING THAT OCCURS AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COME OUT OF THE STORMS.
BY LATER THIS EVENING AREA WILL CLEAR OUT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY IN AREAS THAT GET RAIN
TODAY...BUT TOO EARLY TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS REGARDING FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS POTENTIAL
TODAY OR TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP DURATIONS OF
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO LESS THAN 4 HOURS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL CHANGE
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WHEN A DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  71  89  74  91 /  10  20  10  20
FMY  71  89  72  92 /  20  30  10  30
GIF  71  91  71  92 /  20  30  10  20
SRQ  71  86  72  89 /  10  20  10  20
BKV  66  91  66  90 /  10  20  10  20
SPG  74  87  75  89 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...REYNES
LONG TERM/AVIATION...SHARP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
442 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-261445-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
442 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...AND PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER INLAND AREAS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF STORMS WILL BE FROM POLK COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND
HEATING COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH OR
INTERIOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
159 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

FLZ055-056-261830-
MANATEE-HARDEE-
159 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MANATEE AND WESTERN HARDEE
COUNTIES...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT
MYAKKA HEAD AND ONA...UNTIL 230 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL
OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP
TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED.

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
227 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

FLZ055-056-061-261930-
MANATEE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-
227 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HARDEE AND EASTERN MANATEE
COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT MYAKKA HEAD...
LILY...ONA...WAUCHULA AND ZOLFO SPRINGS...UNTIL 330 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR
DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS
EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS ON
HIGHWAY 64...HIGHWAY 17...AND HIGHWAY 66 IN THESE COUNTIES SHOULD
PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...POOR
VISIBILITY...AND PONDING WATER...ALL DUE TO THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES.

NP

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