Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
620 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

.AVIATION...
SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. TORNADO WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL 06/03Z. OTHER STORMS WILL
DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY GOING WITH VRB35G45KT 3SM TSRAGR IN THE KABI TAF UNTIL
06/02Z. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OF BKN020-030 WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06/03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 142 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006)

UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES TO ADD TORNADO WATCH HEADLINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 104 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006)

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA
IN A MODERATE RISK. STORMS WILL FIRE ALONG NW-SE SURFACE BOUNDARY
NEAR A KMAF-KSJT-BRADY LINE AND ALONG DRYLINE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. SUPERCELLS ARE A GOOD
BET DUE TO SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
50 TO 60 KNOTS. MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...0-3KM HODOGRAPHS SHOW GOOD CLOCKWISE
TURNING WITH HELICITY VALUES OF 150 TO 300...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
A KCOT-KSOA-KINK-KHOB LINE. GOING WITH LKLY POPS ACROSS THE CWFA
TONIGHT AS AN MCS WILL FORM BY 06/06Z AN MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DUE
TO HIGH PW VALUES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING FOR SATURDAY AS SOME
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR STILL PRESENT ALONG WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY.

LONG TERM...
MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN A DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER
HEIGHTS BUILD AND MID LEVEL CAPPING INCREASES. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOL FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE
NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BROWN...CALLAHAN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...CROCKETT...FISHER...
HASKELL...IRION...JONES...KIMBLE...MASON...MCCULLOCH...MENARD...
NOLAN...RUNNELS...SAN SABA...SCHLEICHER...SHACKELFORD...
STERLING...SUTTON...TAYLOR...THROCKMORTON...AND TOM GREEN.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
132 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-061930-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
132 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
LATE EVENING...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE TO HIGH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 PM. VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LONG LIVED
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...MAINLY
EAST OF AN ABILENE TO JUNCTION LINE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
502 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ066-073-139-052300-
RUNNELS TX-COLEMAN TX-CONCHO TX-
502 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
RUNNELS...COLEMAN AND CONCHO COUNTIES...

AT 500 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MILLERSVIEW...OR
ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAINT ROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  THE INTERSECTION OF RANCH ROAD 1929 AND RANCH ROAD 2134 BY 530 PM
  CDT
  IVIE RESERVOIR NEAR CONCHO PARK MARINA BY 540 PM CDT
  LEADAY BY 550 PM CDT
  VOSS BY 600 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
514 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ066-127-052315-
TAYLOR TX-RUNNELS TX-
514 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR TAYLOR
AND RUNNELS COUNTIES...

AT 510 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR OVER WINGATE...OR ABOUT 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WINTERS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HAPPY VALLEY AND DRASCO BY 525 PM CDT
  BRADSHAW BY 535 PM CDT
  LAKE ABILENE BY 550 PM CDT
  TUSCOLA BY 555 PM CDT
  BUFFALO GAP BY 605 PM CDT

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
542 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ066-052315-
RUNNELS TX-
542 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR RUNNELS
COUNTY...

AT 540 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINTERS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WINTERS AND WINTERS LITTLE ELM LAKE BY 550 PM CDT

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
608 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ049-052345-
FISHER TX-
608 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR FISHER
COUNTY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS 8 MILES EAST OF SNYDER AT 604...WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. LOOK FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS FOR FISHER COUNTY AS
THIS STORM APPROACHES FISHER COUNTY WITH HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL.

AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF ROTAN SHOULD SHOULD LOOK OUT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
625 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     HAIL             BUFFALO GAP             32.28N 99.83W
05/05/2006  U0.88 INCH       TAYLOR             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

0622 PM     HAIL             TUSCOLA                 32.21N 99.80W
05/05/2006  U1.00 INCH       TAYLOR             TX   PUBLIC

            COVERING THE GROUND

&&

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ098-060015-
HASKELL TX-
626 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR HASKELL
COUNTY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ASPERMONT AREA AT 620 PM MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH INTO NORTHWEST HASKELL COUNTY AFTER 700 PM.
LOOK FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.