Severe Thunderstorm Warning 388, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
549 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

UPDATED AVIATION

...TORNADO WATCH 796 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LIFTING ENERGY WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A STRONG TO
SEVERE SQUALL LINE. MUCAPES PUSHING 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH 6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KTS WILL SUPPORT SOME SEVERE HAIL. SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS BECOME MORE
SURFACE BASED BY LATER THIS MORNING. A LITTLE LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE
VEERED. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. MEAN STORM
MOTIONS WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT. UNTIL THE
FRONT ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS MORNING...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL POSE A FLOODING THREAT.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS
ACROSS MISSOURI. A FEW EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. MOST
AREAS WILL TEND TO CLOUD UP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN AS A LOW STRATUS
DECK DEVELOPS. THEN EXPECT STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO HANG AROUND FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN LOOK RATHER QUIET AS A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY
WILL GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. CHANCE POPS WERE THEN INCLUDED
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...COLD FRONT STARTING TO MAKE A BIT OF PROGRESS
EASTWARD.  STILL HAVE SURFACE WAVE ALONG FRONT HEADING INTO SW
CORNER OF MISSOURI.  MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIFTING EAST OF SGF/JLN
TERMINAL LOCATIONS AND WILL KEEP TERMAINALS DRY OTHER THAN A TEMPO
GROUP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS TO BEGIN THE SGF TAFS.  CEILINGS WILL
HOVER AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FEET THIS MORNING WITH WINDSHIFT IN SGF
OCCURRING TOWARDS MIDDAY.  CLEARING SKY EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING.

LINDENBERG
&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-241100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
546 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES...
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
  QUARTERS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 44.

  DISCUSSION:

  A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
  MISSOURI TODAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE
  INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE
  SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.
  A SMALL TORNADO THREAT DOES EXIST SOUTH OF A NEOSHO TO AVA LINE
  THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS MORNING.

  THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
  CENTRAL MISSOURI BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
  STORMS WILL AGAIN BE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE
  OF QUARTERS. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
  WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.

  HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
  EAST OF A NEVADA TO NEOSHO LINE. DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
  PAST 24 HOURS...AN ENHANCED FLOODING THREAT EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH
  CENTRAL MISSOURI FROM GAINESVILLE TO ALTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
  INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
  TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 44
  AFTER 12 PM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
447 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

MOZ101-231015-
MCDONALD-
447 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MCDONALD COUNTY UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

AT 443 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF HIWASSE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PINEVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.  THIS STORM WILL MAINLY IMPACT RURAL SECTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MCDONALD COUNTY.

CRAMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
457 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

MOZ102-231100-
BARRY-
457 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BARRY COUNTY UNTIL 600 AM CDT...

AT 453 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PEA RIDGE...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF
BENTONVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR WASHBURN BY 505 AM CDT.
  NEAR SELIGMAN BY 510 AM CDT.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.  MAINLY AREAS OF SOUTHERN BARRY COUNTY ALONG TABLE ROCK LAKE
WILL BE IMPACTED FROM THIS STORM.

CRAMER