Severe Thunderstorm Warning 385, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...TORNADO WATCH 787 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM...

.UPDATE...

DRYLINE EXTENDED ROUGHLY ALONG A AIZ-SGF-UMN LINE AT 23Z.  AIRMASS
TO THE EAST STILL VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG.
SHEAR VALUES ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT AT THIS TIME. TORNADIC
THREAT HAS SHIFTED MORE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.

EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT IN THE ROCKIES AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...KSGF AND KJLN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR THROUGH
ABOUT 05Z. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET. HAVE PUT VCTS BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 05Z...BECOMING -SHRA AS
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AFTER 12Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST BY
18Z.

GAEDE

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SEVERE AND POTENTIALLY TORNADIC STORMS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF BULGING
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...IN VERY UNSTABLE AND STRONG SHEARED
AIRMASS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. DATA FROM 16Z KSGF SOUNDING SHOWED LOW
LEVEL CAP ERODED BY 11 AM WITH 3600+ J/KG CAPE AND 0-3KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITIES OVER 350 M2/S2. BY 230 PM MOST OF THE STORMS
WERE EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.

WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS STILL HOVERING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S ALONG AND
EAST OF A JOPLIN TO VERSAILLES LINE...AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
STILL OUT TO OUR WEST...DO NOT THINK WE ARE TOTALLY IN THE CLEAR
JUST YET. HOWEVER...TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES OVER THE EAST FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT TO SEE
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. AS MAIN
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT...YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT MAINLY A
STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH THE LATER ROUNDS OF STORMS.

TERRY
&&

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE QUIET IN THE WAKE OF OUR ONGOING STORM
SYSTEM.  COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD THROUGH A CANADIAN AIRMASS THAT WILL
SCOUR MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE GULF.  THIS WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE
MAY BE A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW DURING THESE PERIODS...BUT WEAK LIFT AND LOW MOISTURE MAY ONLY
YIELD CLOUD COVER.

THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A STRONGER WAVE COULD IMPACT THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LACKING HOWEVER BETTER LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM JUSTIFIES SOME CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.  FOLLOWED THE MEX POPS NUMBERS WITH THESE PERIODS.  FALL
LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE 40S TO THE
MID 50S.

CRAMER
&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
800 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-231100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
800 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES...
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
  HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS..

  DISCUSSION:

  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
  MISSOURI FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS.  THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS
  SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
  BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
  CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

  THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
  AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS MAY
  REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
  GREATEST HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE QUARTER SIZE HAIL
  AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. AT THIS TIME...THE TORNADO
  THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
  NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER.

  HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
  ACROSS ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM SOME OF THE HEAVIER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERSONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 CAN EXPECT HAIL
  UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
  MPH. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

  HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MID EVENING
  ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEOSHO TO OSAGE BEACH. SPOTTERS AND
  EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
  SHOULD MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
  EVENT CLOSELY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
751 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW AVA                36.92N 92.70W
09/22/2006                   DOUGLAS            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN. DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOME. REPORTED AS A POSSIBLE
            BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR HWY 76 AND KK.

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
753 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MYRTLE                  36.51N 91.27W
09/22/2006                   OREGON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSING IN THE MYRTLE AREA.

&&

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
814 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

MOZ104-230145-
TANEY-
814 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR TANEY COUNTY UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 809 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF FORSYTH TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF OMAHA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORSYTH TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRANSON...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN TANEY COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD THESE STORM BECOME SEVERE.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

IZZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
852 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TORNADO          ST. JAMES               38.00N 91.61W
09/22/2006  F1               PHELPS             MO   NWS STORM SURVEY

            *** 2 INJ *** NUMEROUS LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.
            CONSIDERALBE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO NUMEROUS BUILDINGS.
            SEMI TRUCK AND BUS OVERTURNED ON I 44 NEAR ST.JAMES.
            CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE REPORTED TO STRIP MALL IN TOWN AS
            WELL AS DAMAGE TO AN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. 2 INJURIES.

&&

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
954 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

MOZ104-230330-
TANEY-
954 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR TANEY COUNTY UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 952 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF
FORSYTH TO 14 MILES EAST OF TANEYVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE IN TANEY COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

IZZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1057 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALTON                   36.69N 91.40W
09/22/2006                   OREGON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN THE ALTON AREA BLOCKING ROADS. SOME TREES
            FAIRLY LARGE.

&&

DSA