Severe Thunderstorm Warning 374, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1114 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...
A FEW UPDRAFTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN TRIGGERED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE
TO RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  RADAR
SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THESE UPDRAFTS ARE BEING CAPPED OFF BY A MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED FROM THE KSGF 12Z RAOB AT AROUND
15-18 KFT.  WITH INCREASE HEATING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE...THIS CAP
(SUBSIDENCE INVERSION) WILL PROBABLY BREAK WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE FOR TORNADOES...LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS
THE REGION IS IMPRESSIVE WITH 60-70 KNOTS...0-1KM HELICITIES RANGING
FROM 150-300M2/S2.  A MODIFIED 12Z KSGF RAOB SUGGESTS THAT 1500-2000
J/KG OF ML CAPE EXISTS ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF SW MO...AND WILL ONLY
INCREASE WITH TIME

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN IS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM GROVE OKLAHOMA TO LAKE OF THE OZARKS.

CRAMER

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE QUIET IN THE WAKE OF OUR ONGOING STORM
SYSTEM.  COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD THROUGH A CANADIAN AIRMASS THAT WILL
SCOUR MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE GULF.  THIS WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE
MAY BE A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW DURING THESE PERIODS...BUT WEAK LIFT AND LOW MOISTURE MAY ONLY
YIELD CLOUD COVER.

THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A STRONGER WAVE COULD IMPACT THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LACKING HOWEVER BETTER LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM JUSTIFIES SOME CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.  FOLLOWED THE MEX POPS NUMBERS WITH THESE PERIODS.  FALL
LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE 40S TO THE
MID 50S.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-231100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON...
...TORNADIC STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING POTENTIALLY LONG TRACK
  TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH...AND HAIL IN
  EXCESS OF GOLF BALL SIZE.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
  THE HIGHEST RISK AREA WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 THROUGH 9 PM.

  DISCUSSION:

  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
  MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVING
  QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

  EAST OF HIGHWAY 65...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST
  FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG AND
  EAST OF AN OSAGE BEACH TO NEOSHO LINE.  LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH WILL ALSO
  ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

  THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
  AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
  QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. AT THIS
  TIME...THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

  HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
  ACROSS ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERSONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 CAN EXPECT HAIL
  UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
  MPH. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

  HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MID EVENING
  ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEOSHO TO OSAGE BEACH. SPOTTERS AND
  EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
  SHOULD MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
  EVENT CLOSELY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
104 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HAIL             2 N ELDRIDGE            37.86N 92.75W
09/22/2006  E1.25 INCH       LACLEDE            MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
118 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     HAIL             DECATURVILLE            37.91N 92.70W
09/22/2006  E0.75 INCH       CAMDEN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
125 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     HAIL             MONTREAL                37.97N 92.59W
09/22/2006  E0.75 INCH       CAMDEN             MO   POST OFFICE

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
129 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0123 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N WET GLAIZE          37.95N 92.53W
09/22/2006  E60 MPH          CAMDEN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WINDS ESTIMATED AT GREATER THAN 60 MPH ALONG WITH DIME
            SIZE HAIL.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
131 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             HOUSTON                 37.33N 91.96W
09/22/2006  E1.00 INCH       TEXAS              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

HATCH