Tornado Warning 94, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 221801
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
101 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

MOC105-221845-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0094.000000T0000Z-060922T1845Z/
LACLEDE MO-
101 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN LACLEDE COUNTY...

AT 1257 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ELDRIDGE...OR
ABOUT 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEBANON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3789 9286 3774 9285 3777 9241 3786 9241
      3784 9244 3782 9244 3782 9246 3783 9249
      3782 9249 3781 9251 3780 9254 3780 9256
      3781 9258 3785 9261 3789 9262

$$

CRAMER

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 221835
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
135 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

MOC105-221845-
/O.CAN.KSGF.TO.W.0094.000000T0000Z-060922T1845Z/
LACLEDE MO-
135 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LACLEDE COUNTY...
IS CANCELLED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900
PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3789 9286 3774 9285 3777 9241 3786 9241
      3784 9244 3782 9244 3782 9246 3783 9249
      3782 9249 3781 9251 3780 9254 3780 9256
      3781 9258 3785 9261 3789 9262

$$

GAGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1114 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...
A FEW UPDRAFTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN TRIGGERED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE
TO RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  RADAR
SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THESE UPDRAFTS ARE BEING CAPPED OFF BY A MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED FROM THE KSGF 12Z RAOB AT AROUND
15-18 KFT.  WITH INCREASE HEATING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE...THIS CAP
(SUBSIDENCE INVERSION) WILL PROBABLY BREAK WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE FOR TORNADOES...LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS
THE REGION IS IMPRESSIVE WITH 60-70 KNOTS...0-1KM HELICITIES RANGING
FROM 150-300M2/S2.  A MODIFIED 12Z KSGF RAOB SUGGESTS THAT 1500-2000
J/KG OF ML CAPE EXISTS ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF SW MO...AND WILL ONLY
INCREASE WITH TIME

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN IS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM GROVE OKLAHOMA TO LAKE OF THE OZARKS.

CRAMER

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE QUIET IN THE WAKE OF OUR ONGOING STORM
SYSTEM.  COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD THROUGH A CANADIAN AIRMASS THAT WILL
SCOUR MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE GULF.  THIS WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE
MAY BE A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW DURING THESE PERIODS...BUT WEAK LIFT AND LOW MOISTURE MAY ONLY
YIELD CLOUD COVER.

THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A STRONGER WAVE COULD IMPACT THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LACKING HOWEVER BETTER LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM JUSTIFIES SOME CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.  FOLLOWED THE MEX POPS NUMBERS WITH THESE PERIODS.  FALL
LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE 40S TO THE
MID 50S.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1030 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-231100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1030 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING POTENTIALLY LONG TRACK
  TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH...AND HAIL IN
  EXCESS OF GOLF BALL SIZE.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER 1
  PM. THE HIGHEST RISK AREA WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.

  DISCUSSION:

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
  AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT SOME
  ROTATION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MORE QUICKLY MOVE TO THE
  EAST-NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

  WEST OF HIGHWAY 65...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE
  SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. A FEW
  TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

  EAST OF HIGHWAY 65...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
  FOR TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG AND EAST OF AN
  OSAGE BEACH TO BRANSON LINE. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
  AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
  AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
  QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. AT THIS
  TIME...THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

  HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
  ACROSS ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERSONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 CAN EXPECT HAIL
  UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
  MPH. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

  HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 1 PM ACROSS THE
  OUTLOOK AREA. SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI SHOULD MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
  THIS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT CLOSELY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY/SCHULTZ