Severe Thunderstorm Warning 368, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
619 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. WE DID
BUMP BACK THE TEMPO GROUP AT KJLN TO 01Z-03Z. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS CONTINUES TO MAKE EASTWARD MOVEMENT...WITH
SOME DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE INITIAL LINE. ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP MUCH LATER TONIGHT AND SPREAD
EASTWARD TOWARD KJLN AND KSGF NEAR SUNRISE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BUBBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING...
ESPECIALLY WESTWARD TOWARD KJLN...BUT WILL JUST MENTION CB AT THIS
TIME.

SCHULTZ

&&

.DISCUSSION /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006/...

TONIGHT...FOCUS WILL BE ON A SURFACE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE
STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERNMOST
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
TRACK OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS MORE CLEAR. IF THIS CONVECTION
APPEARS THAT IT WILL TRACK OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS...A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
WILL PASS THIS CONCERN ON TO THE EVENING SHIFT. FORECAST ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES ALSO INDICATE A THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
WOULD BE OVER KANSAS/FAR WESTERN MISSOURI COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...AND OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ENOUGH SUPPORT WILL
FINALLY EXIST FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE INITIAL
FRONTAL SURGE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY
SURGE IS THEN EXPECTED FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SURGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH EVEN SOME BELOW NORMAL VALUES ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL TAPER POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THE REGION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/DEPARTING JET
STREAK IN THE VICINITY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AS THE LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
FINALLY PULL TO THE EAST. HAVE GONE MAINLY DRY FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
359 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-271700-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
359 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
  AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE
  LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY
  RAINFALL OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS ALONG AND
  WEST OF A LINE FROM ROLLA TO GROVESPRING TO SHELL KNOB THIS
  AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
  WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
  THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
  POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT...
  LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE
  OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI HAS BECOME
  UNSTABLE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
  HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
  AND SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
  AREA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE WIND GUSTS IN
  EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

  HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO
  ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE
  EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.  A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
  POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL
  BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

 PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
 MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY
 HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
 BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
 AND WESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN/SCHAUMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
148 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 AM     LIGHTNING        7 N LEBANON             37.78N 92.66W
08/26/2006                   LACLEDE            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO STRUCTURE FIRES CAUSED BY LIGHTNING IN THE DOVE AREA

&&

IZZI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
331 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066-077-088-093-101-262145-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-VERNON-BARTON-JASPER-NEWTON-MCDONALD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...NEVADA...LAMAR...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...
NEOSHO...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE
331 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
752 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
AREAS

IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS

BOURBON               CHEROKEE              CRAWFORD

IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

BARTON                JASPER                MCDONALD
NEWTON                VERNON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...BAXTER SPRINGS...
CARTHAGE...COLUMBUS...FORT SCOTT...JOPLIN...LAMAR...NEOSHO...
NEVADA...PINEVILLE AND PITTSBURG.

WFO SGF