Flash Flood Warning 105, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 280256
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
956 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

MOC149-280306-
OREGON MO-
956 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
OREGON COUNTY...

LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE RECEIVED NO REPORTS OF FLOODING AND 
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED...THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS 
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3665 9169 3668 9143 3666 9127 3677 9112
      3689 9125 3688 9167

$$

IZZI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR SHOWS ENERGY AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
PERSISTED TODAY...WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. INSTABILITY HAS
INCREASED A BIT OVER THE AFTERNOON AND AREAL COVERAGE HAS INCREASED
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
VORTICITY/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT FOR PRECIP TONIGHT.

WENT AHEAD WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. COOP AND
VOLUNTEER WEATHER OBSERVERS REPORTED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 2 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAVE EXACERBATED
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT...60-70KT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH...VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
/NEAR 2 INCHES/...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH...AND EXPECTED SLOW STORM
MOTION ALL INDICATE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 HAVE SEEN THE MOST
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24-36 HOURS. LATEST RUC...12Z WRF...AND 12Z
UKMET ALL INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL BE
ROUGHLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
HEAVY RAIN NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT FLASH FLOODING ANYWHERE IN OUR CWA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN MISSOURI...AND HAVE TAPERED OFF
POPS ACCORDINGLY. CWA SHOULD BE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES.

NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...A LARGE STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT. PROGS OFF THE WRF AND GFS ON THE
310K SURFACE INDICATE THAT THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL ROTATE INTO
MISSOURI ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WHEN COMPARING FORECAST 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS WITH A
LOCAL HISTORICAL UPPER AIR DATA SET...HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA IN
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MOS WAS ALSO IN
THIS BALLPARK...AND HAVE SETTLED ON HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S...BUT WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN THE
TEMPS MAY CLIMB UP TO NEAR 80.

EXTENDED FORECAST APPEARS PRETTY TRANQUIL AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH A FEW DAYS NEAR 90 DEGREES AS
SOME DRIER AIR AND A BIT STRONGER SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IMPINGES ON WESTERN MISSOURI.

MAJORITY OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND NCEP ENSEMBLES ARE CURRENTLY
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW SETTING UP OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. A DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST OF CANADA WILL LIKELY INDUCE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
PROVINCES. IN RESPONSE...THE PROGGED TROUGH MAY VERY WELL GET
PINCHED OFF FROM THE FLOW. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DRY. HOWEVER...IF AN UPPER LOW DOES SIT AND SPIN
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY MAY SPARK PRECIP OVER OUR AREA. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.

SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AROUND KSGF THROUGH ABOUT
21Z. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH VFR
WILL BE THE PREVAILING CATEGORY...LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. PREVAILING WINDS WILL
OTHERWISE BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCHAUMANN
&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES FROM 4PM SUNDAY THROUGH 7AM
     MONDAY.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES FROM 4PM SUNDAY THROUGH 7AM
     MONDAY.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
257 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 ...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL OF EXTREME
    SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD
 TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
 AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF A ROLLA TO HOUSTON TO WEST PLAINS
 LINE. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
 ACROSS ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
 MISSOURI OZARKS THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION:

 LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
 CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
 MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
 MISSOURI...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
 REMAINING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING IN THIS
 AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. SOME OF THESE STORMS
 WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE
 SIZE OF PENNIES.

 MEANWHILE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
 MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. AS THIS LINE ENCOUNTERS MORE
 INSTABILITY...AN INCREASE IN STORM STRENGTH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME
 OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
 AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES.

 OTHER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
 EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND THE REST OF THE OZARK REGION LATE
 THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL
 BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

 ABUNDANT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND A
 GENERALLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN A THREAT
 FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...
 ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THE
 PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

 AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...THIS FEATURE
 WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
 MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
 OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION CAN BECOME
 SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME
 HEATING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND SOUTH
 OF INTERSTATE 44 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN/CRAMER