Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
132 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW VA
MTNS AND NW NC MTNS. THETA-E RIDGE IS FURTHER SOUTH TODAY...LOOKS
LIKE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE SWRN CWA AWAY FROM MOST OF THE
TAF SITES. BLF WILL HAVE AN EARLY CHANCE OF A TSTM...THEN STORMS
WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OFF THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON HOW ORGANIZED THEY CAN BECOME. WILL
CERTAINLY BE UNTSBALE ENOUGH WITH CAPES FCST > 2000 J/KG. FOR NOW
HAVE JUST INCLUDED A PERIOD OF VCTS EARLY FOR BLF...THEN LATER
PERIODS FOR ROA...LYH AND DAN. HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE LWB TAF. WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLEAR OFF OVERNIGHT AND THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
SHALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP...WHICH I INCLUDED IN LYH AND DAN. LWB WILL
LIKELY SEE THE DENSE RIVER FOG TOWARD MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A WEST TO SW WIND DEVELOPING. SHOULD BE GOOD
COVERAGE OF TSTMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT UNLESS SOME
SNEAK IN BEFORE 18Z IN BLF AND LWB...LIKELY BEYOND THE 24 HR TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 1049 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006)

SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

THE FORECAST AREA IF CLOUD FREE...AND VALLEY FOG HAD LIFTED MOST
LOCATIONS. WILL HAVE TO LOWER THE SKY COVER IN THE GRIDS. WITH
FULL OR NEARLY FULL SUN...12Z SOUNDINGS FROM RNK AND GSO INDICATE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WILL BE
RAISING MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. FINALLY...I MODIFIED THE
SOUNDINGS FOR WORST CASE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND WE COULD
HAVE CAPES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS NO
SYNOPTIC FORCING TODAY THOUGH...SO LOOKING FOR JUST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL LOOKS LIKE THAT IS THE AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS...THEN ANY THAT DEVELOP WOULD PROPAGATE INTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WITH STORM MOTIONS TO THE
SOUTHEST...BUT VERY SLOW- LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WILL HAVE STRONG
ENOUGH HEATING THAT ISOLATED STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...BUT SHOULD
NOT HAVE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE. COULD ALSO BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH THE SLOW MVMNT. I WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS...BUT KEEP CHANCE/SCATTERED.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 643 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006)

AVIATION...

MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14 UTC THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY STARTING
AROUND 17Z THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VISIBITLIES WILL BE IFR
TO MVFR CLOSE TO THE STORMS...BUT AWAY FROM THESE AREAS CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. STORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND
WILL DISSIPATE BY 06Z. ANY TAF SITES THAT GET RAIN WILL LIEKLY
HAVE EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR TO VLIFR VISIBILITIES.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 304 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006)

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

06Z/20 SOUNDING NOW AVAIABLE.

NAM IS BRING A PIECE OF VORTICITY FROM THE MINNESOTA CONVECTION
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE COUTNY WARNING
AREA(CWA) ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A TROF DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BETTER
DYNAMICS REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IMPRESSIVE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUDRANT OF THE UPPER JET ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. TROF AXIS IS EAST OF THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING.

AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THEN INTO NEW YORK ON SATURDAY.
THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

NCEP MENTIONED THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF ON FRIDAY POSSIBLY OUTRUNNING
THE SURFACE FRONT. SEEING REFLECTIONS OF THIS IN THE NAM PARAMETERS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY INTO THE PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS CLOSER TO THE FRONT MOVING INTO
THE NORTHWEST CWA. BY FRIDAY 850 MB WINDS EAST OF THE BLUE ARE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES GO BACK UP TO +20/+21 SO
WILL RAISE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
WILL ALSO ADD HEAVY RAIN INTO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE INCREASING TO THE 1.5 TO 2.0 RANGE WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION...

CONVECTION ALL BUT GONE IN THE AREA...WITH LINGERING TSRA OVER FAR
SW VA. FOG ALREADY FORMING IN LYH AND LWB. AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL
DURING THE EVENING SHOULD SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT...EVEN ROANOKE
SHOULD EXPERIENCE VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR RANGE TOWARD DAWN.
LYH...DAN...AND LWB SHOULD ALL DROP INTO IFR TO LIFR RANGE TOWARD
DAWN...DUE TP FOG...AND RECOVER BACK TO VFR VSBYS BY 13-1430Z.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MTNS THU AFTERNOON...AND
THINK LWB WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE THAN OTHER TAF SITES TO THE
EAST. FOR NOW HAVE VCTS IN LWB...WITH CB CLOUD GROUP FOR ROA AND
LYH LATE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1253 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-211700-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
1253 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS BY
MID AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AREAS. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND THE PROLONGED PERIOD WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1259 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE RADFORD            37.10N 80.53W
07/19/2006                   MONTGOMERY         VA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ONE TREE DOWN ON MEADOW CREEK RD.

&&

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
103 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             6 E BLACKSBURG          35.12N 81.41W
07/19/2006  E0.75 INCH       CHEROKEE           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AND LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
104 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             6 E BLACKSBURG          37.23N 80.31W
07/19/2006  E0.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AND LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

HYSELL

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