Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
743 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA APPEARS TO BE
OUTFLOW DRIVEN AT THE MOMENT. LWB...ROA...LYH AND DAN HAVE ALREADY
HAD TSTMS...SO BEST CHANCE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE FURTHER
WEST...INCLUDING BLF. HAVE INCLUDED SOME TSTM ACTIVITY MOST TAFS
THOUGH THROUGH 01 OR 02Z...THINKING IS THAT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE FURTHER WEST BY 02Z. CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...SO I EXPECT SOME FOG AT MOST LOCATIONS SINCE THEY HAVE HAD
SOME RAIN. KEPT THE FOG MVFR FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR FOR DAN AND LIFR FOT LWB. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. ANY TSTM DEVELOPEMENT WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND
AFTER 18Z...SO I DID NOT INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 245 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006)

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE PERIMETER OF THE
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH OLD OUTFLOW AND OROGRAPHICS OVER THE WEST.
GIVEN GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECT INCREASING CONVECTIVE TREND THRU AT
LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING AS DIFF HEATING PERSISTS OVER THE RIDGES
AND OUTFLOW MEANDERS AROUND. MODELS SUGGEST NEXT WEAK S/W PUSHING SE
ALONG OLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH CORRESPONDING MCS DROPPING SOUTH
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS LOOKS A BIT SUSPECT BUT SINCE WOULDNT
TAKE MUCH TO KEEP TSRA GOING SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT PLAN TO INCLUDE
AT LEAST CHANCE POPS MOST SPOTS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AGAIN NOT QUITE AS
COOL GIVEN MOIST DEWPOINTS AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS AROUND.

OLD BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE THU IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHT INCREASE IN
HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW DEVELOPING. APPEARS LITTLE FORCING
OTHER THAN OROGRAPHICS/BOUNDARIES BUT ENOUGH DEEP RH AROUND TO
INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS WHILE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE
OUT EAST. OTHERWISE WILL CALL IT PC AFTER EARLY FOG AND TREND HIGH
TEMPS A BIT ABOVE MOS SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES MAY CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. PLAYED
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MOS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. GREAT LAKES LOW CENTER WILL PUSH A STRONGER FRONT INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER
THE REGION WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING EAST ALONG IT
DURING THE WEEKEND. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY AND BEST Q-VECTOR
FORCING IS AT THE 1000-850 AND 850-700 MB LAYERS IS ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

HPC RELIED ON 00Z ECMWF FOR EXTENDED GRIDS AND PROGD CHARTS.
FOLLOWED THE HPCGUIDE FOR MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS AND ISC GRIDS.
INCREASED POPS ON WEDNESDAY TO BLEND BETTER WITH RLX AND GSP.

AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MAKE FOR OCNL MVFR/IFR AT
TIMES ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. THUS PLAN TO INCLUDE
CB MENTION OR TEMPO GROUP MOST SPOTS INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
ALSO FOG AGAIN LIKELY ESPCLY LWB WHERE VSBY AOB 1 MILE LIKELY WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LYH/DAN BY MORNING. ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG
BREAK FOR VFR CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS THU MORNING...WITH MOST
ADDED CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
345 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-201945-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
345 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN
AS WELL AS ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
831 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             SALEM                   37.29N 80.06W
07/19/2006  E1.00 INCH       CITY OF SALEM      VA   PUBLIC

            IN CITY

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
836 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             10 SE BUCKINGHAM        37.45N 78.42W
07/19/2006  E0.88 INCH       BUCKINGHAM         VA   PUBLIC

&&

TW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
840 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             ELLISTON                37.22N 80.23W
07/19/2006  E0.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         VA   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

TW

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