Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
240 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NICE THETA-E/INSTABILITY BOUNDARY LINED UP FROM KY THROUGH SRN VA
ATTM...WITH TSRA FIRING ALONG IT. MORE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL BE FOLLOWING CLOSE TO THE NAM
SOLUTION...EXCEPT FOR ABOUT 3-6 HOURS SLOWER THAN NAM IN CLEARING
THINGS OUT THURSDAY.

WITH THAT IN MIND...BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST
TONIGHT...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE SHD VLY OVERNIGHT. HAVE
RAISED POPS TO CAT IN THE FAR WEST...TO LIKELYS AGAINS THAT.
CONVECTION ONGOING ALONG THETA-E SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN ONCE
THE SUN GOES DOWN...SO THERE COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
BEFORE FRONTAL DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY.

WED-THU MORNING WILL BE STORMY WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED. WILL BE
ISSUING A FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK BASED ON THIS.

LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD START CLEARING FROM NW TO SE BY THU AFTN-
THU EVENING...WITH COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FRIDAY.

WENT AT OR BELOW MAV MOS ON TEMPS BASED ON MORE CLDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT OR BELOW
NORM ON TEMPS...AAS 5H TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MON NIGHT-TUE TIME FRAME. FOR NOW JUST HAVE LOW
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MON NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS
HEATING BACK UP TOWARD JULY NORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...

SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...RESULTING IN MVFR TO
IFR VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE STORMS DIMINISH AFTER 03Z TONIGHT EXPECT
MVFR FOG AND HAZE. AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA...WIDEPSREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR
TO IFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE 12-18Z WEDNESDAY.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

WHP/AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
344 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-051000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
344 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FLOODING MAY AGAIN BECOME AN ISSUE ON
CREEKS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS MAIN STEM RIVERS INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
548 PM EDT TUE JUL 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             4 W PENHOOK             36.98N 79.71W
07/04/2006  M0.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           VA   PUBLIC

&&

DOC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
608 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

NCZ003-042240-
SURRY-
608 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN SURRY COUNTY...
AFFECTING LOW GAP...INTERSTATE 77...AND PINE RIDGE THROUGH 645 PM.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM.

VAZ024-035-042240-
AMHERST-ROCKBRIDGE-
608 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN ROCKBRIDGE...AND WESTERN
AMHERST THROUGH 645 PM. THE TOWNS OF GLASGOW...BUENA VISTA...AND
PLEASANT VIEW CAN ANTICIPATE THIS STORM. THOSE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
PARKWAY WILL NEED TO SEEK SHELTER INDOORS...AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS...
AS THIS STORM CAN PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING.

05

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