Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
240 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NICE THETA-E/INSTABILITY BOUNDARY LINED UP FROM KY THROUGH SRN VA
ATTM...WITH TSRA FIRING ALONG IT. MORE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL BE FOLLOWING CLOSE TO THE NAM
SOLUTION...EXCEPT FOR ABOUT 3-6 HOURS SLOWER THAN NAM IN CLEARING
THINGS OUT THURSDAY.

WITH THAT IN MIND...BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST
TONIGHT...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE SHD VLY OVERNIGHT. HAVE
RAISED POPS TO CAT IN THE FAR WEST...TO LIKELYS AGAINS THAT.
CONVECTION ONGOING ALONG THETA-E SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN ONCE
THE SUN GOES DOWN...SO THERE COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
BEFORE FRONTAL DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY.

WED-THU MORNING WILL BE STORMY WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED. WILL BE
ISSUING A FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK BASED ON THIS.

LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD START CLEARING FROM NW TO SE BY THU AFTN-
THU EVENING...WITH COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FRIDAY.

WENT AT OR BELOW MAV MOS ON TEMPS BASED ON MORE CLDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT OR BELOW
NORM ON TEMPS...AAS 5H TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MON NIGHT-TUE TIME FRAME. FOR NOW JUST HAVE LOW
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MON NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS
HEATING BACK UP TOWARD JULY NORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...

SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...RESULTING IN MVFR TO
IFR VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE STORMS DIMINISH AFTER 03Z TONIGHT EXPECT
MVFR FOG AND HAZE. AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA...WIDEPSREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR
TO IFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE 12-18Z WEDNESDAY.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

WHP/AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
344 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-051000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
344 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FLOODING MAY AGAIN BECOME AN ISSUE ON
CREEKS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS MAIN STEM RIVERS INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
125 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

VAZ007-009-010-012-041815-
SMYTH VA-WYTHE VA-BLAND VA-TAZEWELL VA-
125 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

AT 120 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RICHLANDS...OR ABOUT OVER
RAVEN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...BANDY AT 130 PM EDT...
CLIFFIELD AND BROADFORD AT 135 PM EDT...ASBERRYS AND TAZEWELL AT 145
PM EDT...MARION AT 150 PM EDT...AND BURKES GARDEN AT 200 PM EDT.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR WITH
THIS STORM. ALSO BE PREPARED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

AMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
204 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

VAZ007-009-010-012-041900-
SMYTH VA-WYTHE VA-BLAND VA-TAZEWELL VA-
204 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

AT 203 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 10 MILES NORTH OF MARION...OR ABOUT
3 MILES SOUTH OF ASBERRYS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...NEBO AND ATKINS AT 215 PM
EDT...BURKES GARDEN AT 220 PM EDT...THE WYTHEVILLE AIRPORT AT 225 PM
EDT...AND RURAL RETREAT AT 230 PM EDT.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH DURING THE NEXT
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 25
TO 30 MPH.

AMS