Severe Thunderstorm Warning 405, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
210 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TNGT-TUE...THE RIDGE ALOFT RETROGRADES ALLOWING WESTERLIES TO DIP
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO MID ATLANTIC STATES.  A LOWER
LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS SE THIS EVENING THEN A BROADER TROUGH EVOLVES
OVER CENTRAL NC AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE TUE.
SCT TSTMS WITH 30-40 PCT POPS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A
RESPITE MIDN-NOON TUE THEN MORE TSTMS WITH SIGNIFICANT LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND POPS IN THE 50-60 PCT RANGE.  LOWS 71-76.
HIGHS 89-94.

TUE NGT-WED...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH AND STALLS JUST SOUTH
OF THE BORDER.  AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER ON WED...WITH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND SMALL PERTURBATIONS
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT.  CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH CHANCES
DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT NORTH ON WED.  LOWS 70-75. HIGHS 84-89.

WED NGT-THU...THE MODELS GET FUZZY IN THE MOISTURE AND STABILITY
DETAILS BUT BOTH GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WITH THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SC AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS SHOW A DIVERGENT WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE
LAYER ON THU WHICH SHOULD KEEP POPS LOW ON THU. MOSTLY OR VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND RESIDUAL NRN STREAM AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 84-89 AFTER LOWS OF
68-73.  -RFG
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT COULD BE IN THE CARDS THIS WEEKEND WITH
AN OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS ON LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO
THE THE AMPLIFICATION OF A VIGOROUS CANADIAN MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LINGERING AROUND THE NC/SC
STATE LINE SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN SMALL SCALE FEATURES RESULTS IN VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
ON POPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET DEVELOPING A
CUT OFF LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY...AND THEN MOVING SLOWLY SE OVER THE
CAROLINAS. -CBL
&&

.AVIATION...
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF AIRMASS CONVECTION ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. VCTS A COUPLE OF HOURS
AT RDU...RWI...AND FAY TAF SITES...BEFORE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS CONVECTIVE THREAT.

TONIGHT...FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE WITH FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ANY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE VICINITY OF TAF SITES WOULD
ENHANCE COVERAGE AND DENSITY OF FOG.

TUESDAY...COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
EXPECTED AT 18Z OR BEYOND. -CBL
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-075>078-084>086-088-
089 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...RFG
LONG TERM...LOCKLEAR
AVIATION...LOCKLEAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 AM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-080930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
930 AM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...MAINLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM THIS EVENING...PROMPTED BY
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DRIFTING FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS THAN IN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.  THERE MAY BE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

RFG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
501 PM EDT MON AUG 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N ANSONVILLE          35.13N 80.11W
08/07/2006                   ANSON              NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 52 NEAR THE ANSON/STANLY COUNTY LINE.

&&

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
510 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

NCZ026-027-072200-
FRANKLIN-NASH-
510 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NASH COUNTY...

AT 510 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
BETWEEN SPRING HOPE...NASHVILLE... AND CASTALIA... MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...NASHVILLE... RED
OAK... AND RURAL WESTERN AND CENTRAL NASH COUNTY.

FREQUENT INTENSE LIGHTNING... GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH... AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THE BEST PLACE TO BE DURING THUNDERSTORMS IS INSIDE A STURDY
BUILDING... AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

BADGETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
534 PM EDT MON AUG 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW NASHVILLE          36.01N 78.01W
08/07/2006                   NASH               NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTING WIND DAMAGE IN CORINTH ALONG
            HIGHWAY 58 NORTHWEST OF NASHVILLE.

&&

ORROCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
545 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

NCZ008-022>025-039-040-072245-
ALAMANCE-CHATHAM-DURHAM-GRANVILLE-GUILFORD-ORANGE-RANDOLPH-
545 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
GRANVILLE...ALAMANCE...ORANGE...DURHAM...RANDOLPH AND CHATHAM
COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 545 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
SCATTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF OXFORD TO
SAXAPAHAW AND CLIMAX...MOVING SOUTHEAST EAST AT 5 MPH.

SOME LOCATION IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
BEREA...STEM...CHAPEL HILL...CHAPEL HILL...SAXAPAHAW...SNOW CAMP
AND LIBERTY.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. SOME
DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND AWNINGS COULD BE
TOSSED AROUND.

JO

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