Severe Thunderstorm Warning 400, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
210 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TNGT-TUE...THE RIDGE ALOFT RETROGRADES ALLOWING WESTERLIES TO DIP
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO MID ATLANTIC STATES.  A LOWER
LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS SE THIS EVENING THEN A BROADER TROUGH EVOLVES
OVER CENTRAL NC AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE TUE.
SCT TSTMS WITH 30-40 PCT POPS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A
RESPITE MIDN-NOON TUE THEN MORE TSTMS WITH SIGNIFICANT LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND POPS IN THE 50-60 PCT RANGE.  LOWS 71-76.
HIGHS 89-94.

TUE NGT-WED...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH AND STALLS JUST SOUTH
OF THE BORDER.  AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER ON WED...WITH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND SMALL PERTURBATIONS
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT.  CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH CHANCES
DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT NORTH ON WED.  LOWS 70-75. HIGHS 84-89.

WED NGT-THU...THE MODELS GET FUZZY IN THE MOISTURE AND STABILITY
DETAILS BUT BOTH GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WITH THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SC AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS SHOW A DIVERGENT WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE
LAYER ON THU WHICH SHOULD KEEP POPS LOW ON THU. MOSTLY OR VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND RESIDUAL NRN STREAM AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 84-89 AFTER LOWS OF
68-73.  -RFG
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT COULD BE IN THE CARDS THIS WEEKEND WITH
AN OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS ON LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO
THE THE AMPLIFICATION OF A VIGOROUS CANADIAN MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LINGERING AROUND THE NC/SC
STATE LINE SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN SMALL SCALE FEATURES RESULTS IN VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
ON POPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET DEVELOPING A
CUT OFF LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY...AND THEN MOVING SLOWLY SE OVER THE
CAROLINAS. -CBL
&&

.AVIATION...
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF AIRMASS CONVECTION ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. VCTS A COUPLE OF HOURS
AT RDU...RWI...AND FAY TAF SITES...BEFORE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS CONVECTIVE THREAT.

TONIGHT...FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE WITH FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ANY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE VICINITY OF TAF SITES WOULD
ENHANCE COVERAGE AND DENSITY OF FOG.

TUESDAY...COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
EXPECTED AT 18Z OR BEYOND. -CBL
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-075>078-084>086-088-
089 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...RFG
LONG TERM...LOCKLEAR
AVIATION...LOCKLEAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 AM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-080930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
930 AM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...MAINLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM THIS EVENING...PROMPTED BY
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DRIFTING FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS THAN IN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.  THERE MAY BE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

RFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
144 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

NCZ073-074-083-084-071845-
ANSON-MONTGOMERY-RICHMOND-STANLY-
144 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

...DEVELOPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS RICHMOND...
MONTGOMERY...STANLY AND ANSON COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 144 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
MONROE TO PEACHLAND TO POLKTON TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF ANSONVILLE. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR RICHFIELD... BADIN
LAKE... AND ALBEMARLE.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS.

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
239 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

NCZ041-076-077-071945-
HARNETT-LEE-WAKE-
239 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WAKE...LEE AND HARNETT
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 239 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM RDU INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TO NEW HILL TO SANFORD
TO 8 MILES EAST OF CARTHAGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PINEVIEW... SEMINOLE... FUQUAY
VARINA... GARNER... AND RALEIGH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DEADLY
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS.

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
306 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

NCZ073-072000-
STANLY-
306 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS STANLY COUNTY THROUGH 400 PM
EDT...

AT 306 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 6 MILES
WEST OF RICHFIELD...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SALISBURY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...RICHFIELD...NEW
LONDON...FINGER...AND PLYLER.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DEADLY
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS.

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
328 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

NCZ074-083-084-072030-
ANSON-MONTGOMERY-RICHMOND-
328 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS RICHMOND...MONTGOMERY AND
ANSON COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 328 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE STANLY AND MONTGOMERY COUNTY LINE...ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ALBEMARLE... MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING FROM NEAR BADIN LAKE TO STEEDS.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...ANSONVILLE AND
TROY.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DEADLY
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS.

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
334 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

NCZ008-025-026-041-072030-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-GRANVILLE-WAKE-
334 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER BUTNER... STEM... AND CREEDMOOR...

AT 334 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
BUTNER...OR ABOUT 5 MILES WEST OF CREEDMOOR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE PRODUCING FREQUENT INTENSE LIGHTNING... VERY
HEAVY RAIN... AND GUSTY WIND TO 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 415 PM
INCLUDE...BUTNER... GORMAN...CREEDMOOR...FALLS LAKE.

TAKE SHELTER INDOORS... AND MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE WATER.

BADGETT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
410 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

NCZ008-025-040-041-072100-
CHATHAM-DURHAM-GRANVILLE-WAKE-
410 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST GRANVILLE... EASTERN
DURHAM... WESTERN WAKE... AND EASTERN CHATHAM COUNTIES...

AT 410 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM BUTNER TO BETHESDA... FALLS LAKE... EAST DURHAM...
AND JORDAN LAKE... OR ABOUT 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE RDU
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...RDU INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT... FALLS LAKE... EAST DURHAM... JORDAN LAKE... MORRISVILLE.

FREQUENT INTENSE LIGHTNING... VERY HEAVY RAIN... AND GUSTY WIND TO
40 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION... VERY HEAVY
RAIN... BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED... DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVEMENT.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR MINOR FLOODING AND POOR VISIBILITIES.

TAKE SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THUNDER IS NO LONGER HEARD.

BADGETT