Severe Thunderstorm Warning 319, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
239 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOC WITH APPROACHING H5 TROF AND VORT
MAX SHOULD COMMENCE SHORTLY AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW THE H5 TROF AND
ENERGY MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY 06-12Z SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SUCH...WILL TAPER AND EVENTUALLY REMOVE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE NAM APPEARS MORE PROGRESSIVE NOW WITH THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF H5
ENERGY CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. WHERE PREVIOUS NAM RUNS
TRIED TO HANG UP THE ENERGY ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW...THE 12Z RUN
TODAY NOW KICKS THE ENERGY OFF FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE
BECOMING A RETROGRADING CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS KIND OF A SCENARIO THE PAST FEW
RUNS...AND NOW IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM IS COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT
WITH THIS. WILL REMOVE ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP TOMORROW WITH VERY
DEEP H5 RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US CONTROLLING THE WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
REMOVED ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE MID 90S WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.  MAIN ISSUE FOR THE
LONG-TERM WILL BE THE HEAT.  DAILY HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S...SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL TEMPERATURE
SCHEME USING 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WHICH FORECAST THESE VALUES FOR
MID WEEK GIVEN FULL SUN.  TREND OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOS WAS
WARMER FOR ITS LAST COUPLE OF RUNS PRIOR TO THE 06Z RUN...SHOWING
HIGHS OVER 100 AT RDU TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THE AVERAGE OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WAS GENERALLY HIGHER THAN THE ENSEMBLES.  IF THE
CANADIAN VERIFIES WITH ITS STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TEMPERATURES REACH TRIPLE DIGITS IN NUMEROUS LOCATIONS.
WOULD LIKE TO SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THICKNESS AND 700MB TEMPERATURE
VALUES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN SUCH HEAT IN THE EXTENDED...AND AT
THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST OF MAXES IN THE MID AND UPPER
90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S.  06Z GFS MOS WAS
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN THE 12Z MEX.

GFS FORECAST DEW POINTS...IN THE UPPER 60S WEST TO 70-75 EAST...
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH HEAT INDICES TO ACCOMPANY THE HOT
TEMPERATURES.  98/72 GIVES A HEAT INDEX OF 107.  WOULD NEED TRIPLE
DIGITS TO GIVE A HEAT INDEX OF 110 WITH A DEW POINT IN THE LOWER
70S.  STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATEMENTS
ON EXPECTED HEAT INDICES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

WITH RIDGING IN PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE VERY HIGH.  GFS FORECASTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE RIDGE THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE BRUSHING
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT
SETTLES OVER VIRGINIA.  MEX MOS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BASICALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ALREADY HAD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE DIGITAL FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THAT FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE APPROACH OF
THE SHORTWAVE.  HPC POPS ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AS WELL.  WOULD NOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT CHANCE NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH BETTER MSAS ANALYZED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND FORECAST LIFT OVER SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...OPTED TO FORECAST TEMPO THUNDER
AT KFAY BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z.  ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE WAS WEAKENING
INTO THE TRIAD FROM THE MOUNTAINS...RADAR TREND FROM KFCX RESULTED
IN THE NEED TO FORECAST A TEMPO FOR THUNDER AT KINT AS WELL AS
ECHOES SLIP TO THE SOUTHEAST.  AFTER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...NAM FORECASTS DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR IN THE MEAN TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT.  DEW POINTS DO NOT FALL OFF QUICKLY...AND BASICALLY
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE IN A MOIST AIR MASS WITH LITTLE WIND...SHOWING
IFR FOG AT KRWI AND KFAY LATE TONIGHT...MVFR AT RDU.  STABLE AIR
MASS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING SUNDAY WITH
ONLY A FEW LINGERING CIRRUS OR CUMULUS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A
NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...DJF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
934 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-161345-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
934 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...VERY INTENSE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. THE
BEST TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 1 PM THROUGH 10 PM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSE A THREAT OF FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...URBAN AREAS AND ALONG SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. STORMS
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THUNDERSTORMS...HEAT INDEX VALES WILL HOVER AROUND
100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD POSE A THREAT TO THOSE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO HOT WEATHER INCLUDING CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NEAR RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. IF FORECAST TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS DO NOT CHANGE...HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED MID WEEK. THE HOT WEATHER PATTERN WILL
ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO POOR AIR QUALITY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

VINCENT

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