Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
405 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRIDS/FORECAST WILL BE LATE DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. HOPE TO
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 530 PM EDT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RHJ/WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...RHJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
607 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-151015-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
607 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
STRONG JET STREAM ALOFT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL ENERGIZE
A COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
CROSSES CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ADD TO AN
ALREADY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING
EARLY TODAY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. BUT A MORE VIGOROUS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST EARLY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BEFORE 5 PM AND
THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE 8 PM THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL. STRONG...DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF...INCLUDING THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA MAINLY BETWEEN 100 PM AND 800 PM. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT THREATENING WEATHER OF ANY KIND TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
436 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     HAIL             KNIGHTDALE              35.79N 78.49W
05/14/2006  E1.75 INCH       WAKE               NC   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL HAIL KNIGHTDALE

0248 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FUQUAY-VARINA           35.59N 78.79W
05/14/2006                   WAKE               NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN 10 - 10 ROAD AND FANNY BROWN ROAD

&&

REU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
447 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

NCZ009-010-142145-
VANCE-WARREN-
447 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WARREN AND VANCE
COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM...

AT 447 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
BULLOCKSVILLE...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTH OF HENDERSON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE WISE AND THE KERR
LAKE AND WESTERN LAKE GASTON AREAS.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN A FEW DOWNED TREES OR LIMBS.

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
449 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             DURHAM                  35.99N 78.88W
05/14/2006  E0.88 INCH       DURHAM             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN WEST DURHAM NEAR DUKE
            HOSPITAL.

&&

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
454 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 PM     HAIL             RALEIGH                 35.81N 78.64W
05/14/2006  E1.75 INCH       WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT PARK HAVEN LANE AND
            JOHNSON ST.

&&

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
510 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             GREENSBORO              36.08N 79.83W
05/14/2006  E1.75 INCH       GUILFORD           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR LAKE EANETTE.

&&

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
512 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             BURLINGTON              36.09N 79.44W
05/14/2006  E0.75 INCH       ALAMANCE           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN NORTH BURLINGTON ON WEST OLD
            RD. AND LAKE SIDE RD.

&&

BSD