Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1225 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 1700-1900 UTC AS MID LEVEL WIND MAX
ROTATES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. WHILE SEVERE
THREAT THIS MRONIG WAS HAIL...BELIEVE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
HAVE ADDED THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY STORMS THAT OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS (CLOSER TO THE DYNAMOCS AND
WHERE BEST LOW LEVELM INSTABILITY RESIDES). ALSO LOOKS AS IF STORMS
WILL MOVE FASTER THAN THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MOVEMENT E-NE AT 30-35
MPH RATHER THAN NE AT 20 MPH THAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. -WSS/RHJ

&&

PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL IS CURRENTLY
EXITING THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALREADY POPPING UP IN THE WEST. WITH HEATING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE... ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON
...ONCE WE ADD A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE MIXTURE. THICKNESS
SCHEMES INDICATE READINGS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IN THE
NORTHWEST... HOWEVER WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE ENTIRE CWA IS SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT THE PRESENT
TIME UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FOCUSING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA... WHILE A COOL POOL IS WORKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT IS WE WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE
AFTERNOON.

WILL REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 323 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006)

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING
SYNOPTIC ASCENT AS DEEP H5 LOW CONTINUES MOVING SE TOWARDS THE AREA
AND STRONG H5 JET BEGINS TO PIVOT AROUND THE BASE...EJECTING
DOWNSTREAM INTO NC. VWPS FROM GSP...CAE AND RAH SHOW 30-40 KT SW
LLJ AT 1-2KFT ALREADY ESTABLISHED AND HELPING TO ADVECT MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER DEWPOINTS PLUNGED INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
A LINE JUST EAST OF CHARLOTTE AND NORTH TO GREENSBORO WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING THROUGH CENTRAL NC...DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS.

SEVERE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON
AS H5 LOW/COLDPOOL ALOFT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND STRONG H5 JET PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LOW...PLACING CENTRAL NC IN A LEFT EXIT REGION DURING MAX DIURNAL
HEATING LATER TODAY. SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER NC/VA LATER TODAY WILL
ALSO HELP BACK SFC WINDS AND ALLOW MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG AND SUGGEST ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HAIL AND WIND WITH VERY LOW FREEZING/WBZ
LEVELS (8-9KFT) AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WX THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER/AMOUNT OF INSOLATION
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING WILL HELP TO WORK OVER THE
ATMOSPHERE...PERHAPS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AFTER A BRIEF LULL ON MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
FIRST SFC WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA...ANOTHER SFC WAVE WILL DEVELOP
AND LINGER AROUND ON MON-TUE...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. H5 LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLOW STAYS MERIDIONAL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
US AND TROF OVER THE EASTERN US...BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THIS
WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO LONG TERM FORECAST.

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE FORWARD EDGE
OF A STRONG JET STREAM ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD SCT TO BKN LAYERS
OF STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH BASES OF 4 TO 8 THSD FT. VSBY SHOULD BE UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT
LOCALLY 3 TO 5 MILES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -RFG

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RHJ/WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
607 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-151015-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
607 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
STRONG JET STREAM ALOFT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL ENERGIZE
A COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
CROSSES CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ADD TO AN
ALREADY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING
EARLY TODAY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. BUT A MORE VIGOROUS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST EARLY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BEFORE 5 PM AND
THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE 8 PM THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL. STRONG...DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF...INCLUDING THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA MAINLY BETWEEN 100 PM AND 800 PM. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT THREATENING WEATHER OF ANY KIND TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
247 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     HAIL             GREENSBORO              36.08N 79.83W
05/14/2006  E0.88 INCH       GUILFORD           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKLE SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER ON THE GUILFORD
            RANDOLF COUNTY LINE

0227 PM     HAIL             HIGH POINT              35.98N 80.00W
05/14/2006  E1.00 INCH       GUILFORD           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER SOUTH OF HIGH POINT
            ON KIVETT NATHAN HUNT DR.

&&

REU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006   ...CORRECTION FOR TIME OF EVENT...

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205        HAIL             GREENSBORO              36.08N 79.83W
05/14/2006  E0.88 INCH       GUILFORD           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKLE SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER ON THE GUILFORD
            RANDOLF COUNTY LINE

0227 PM     HAIL             HIGH POINT              35.98N 80.00W
05/14/2006  E1.00 INCH       GUILFORD           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER SOUTH OF HIGH POINT
            ON KIVETT NATHAN HUNT DR.

&&

REU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
252 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     HAIL             FUQUAY-VARINA           35.59N 78.79W
05/14/2006  E1.25 INCH       WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0249 PM     HAIL             1 S FUQUAY-VARINA       35.58N 78.79W
05/14/2006  E1.00 INCH       WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND SEVERAL PINE TREES DOWN.

&&

BSD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             OXFORD                  36.31N 78.59W
05/14/2006  E0.88 INCH       GRANVILLE          NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN OXFORD.

&&

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