Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Pueblo, CO

000 
WGUS65 KPUB 080150
FFAPUB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
750 PM MDT FRI JUL 7 2006

...A MOIST AIR MASS WILL ONCE AGAIN MEAN A THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN...

.A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS...AND THE NEARBY PLAINS...INCLUDING THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. ON SATURDAY A VERY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
WILL PUSH UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY
PLAINS...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL TEND TO ANCHOR THE
STORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY...AND THUS THERE
WILL BE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

COZ072>088-080600-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-060708T0600Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0004.060708T1800Z-060709T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
INCLUDING...LA VETA PASS...PONCHA PASS...BLANCA PEAK...CUCHARA...
STONEWALL...WESTON...SPANISH PEAKS...COALDALE...COTOPAXI...
HILLSIDE...HOWARD...SWISSVALE...TEXAS CREEK...SILVER CLIFF...
WESTCLIFFE...RYE...GREENHORN MTN...WOODLAND PARK...PIKES PEAK...
CANON CITY...PENROSE...BLACK FOREST...AIR FORCE ACADEMY...
COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO...WALSENBURG...TRINIDAD
750 PM MDT FRI JUL 7 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND 
  SOUTHEAST COLORADO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST 
  CENTRAL COLORADO...EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY AND THE 
  RAMPART RANGE IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...FREMONT COUNTY...
  NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN SANGRE DE 
  CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND WET MOUNTAINS IN 
  SOUTHEAST COLORADO...HUERFANO COUNTY...PUEBLO COUNTY AND 
  WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT

* THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY
  PLAINS THIS EVENING...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
  RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM
  THE STORMS...COMBINED WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS
  DAYS...WILL RESULT IN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. FLASH
  FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN THE HAYMAN BURN SCAR AREA THIS
  EVENING.

* SOME LOCATIONS HAVING THE HIGHEST THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
  INCLUDE THE MATO VEGA...MAURICIO CANYON...MASON GULCH...AND
  HAYMAN WILDFIRE BURN SCARS. ALSO...AREAS IN EASTERN FREMONT
  COUNTY AND WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN
  EARLIER THIS WEEK...WILL BE AT AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
  FLOODING. FINALLY...URBAN AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25
  CORRIDOR... INCLUDING PLACES LIKE COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO...
  CANON CITY AND TRINIDAD...MAY SEE FLOODING PROBLEMS RELATED TO
  EXCESSIVE STORM WATER RUNOFF.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND 
  SOUTHEAST COLORADO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST 
  CENTRAL COLORADO...EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY AND THE 
  RAMPART RANGE IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...FREMONT COUNTY...
  NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN SANGRE DE 
  CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND WET MOUNTAINS IN 
  SOUTHEAST COLORADO...HUERFANO COUNTY...PUEBLO COUNTY AND 
  WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT

* THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY
  PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
  TO PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. EXCESSIVE
  RUNOFF FROM THE STORMS...COMBINED WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS
  FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...WILL RESULT IN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
  FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS HAVING THE HIGHEST THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
  INCLUDE THE MATO VEGA...MAURICIO CANYON...MASON GULCH...AND
  HAYMAN WILDFIRE BURN SCARS. ALSO...AREAS IN EASTERN FREMONT
  COUNTY AND WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN
  EARLIER THIS WEEK...WILL BE AT AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
  FLOODING. FINALLY...URBAN AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25
  CORRIDOR... INCLUDING PLACES LIKE COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO...
  CANON CITY AND TRINIDAD...MAY SEE FLOODING PROBLEMS RELATED TO
  EXCESSIVE STORM WATER RUNOFF.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

$$

HODANISH

000 
WGUS65 KPUB 080451
FFAPUB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1051 PM MDT FRI JUL 7 2006

...THE FLOOD WATCH WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FRIDAY EVENING HAS BEEN
CANCELED. HOWEVER...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

.THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED FOR FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER BOUT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COMPUTER GUIDANCE LATE FRIDAY EVENING WAS
INDICATING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE I-25 CORRIDOR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL FALL ON RAIN
SOAKED GROUNDS...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COZ072>088-081300-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-060708T0600Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0004.060708T1800Z-060709T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
INCLUDING...LA VETA PASS...PONCHA PASS...BLANCA PEAK...CUCHARA...
STONEWALL...WESTON...SPANISH PEAKS...COALDALE...COTOPAXI...
HILLSIDE...HOWARD...SWISSVALE...TEXAS CREEK...SILVER CLIFF...
WESTCLIFFE...RYE...GREENHORN MTN...WOODLAND PARK...PIKES PEAK...
CANON CITY...PENROSE...BLACK FOREST...AIR FORCE ACADEMY...
COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO...WALSENBURG...TRINIDAD
1051 PM MDT FRI JUL 7 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR FRIDAY EVENING HAS ENDED. LIKEWISE...THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND 
  SOUTHEAST COLORADO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST 
  CENTRAL COLORADO...EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY AND THE 
  RAMPART RANGE IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...FREMONT COUNTY...
  NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN SANGRE DE 
  CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND WET MOUNTAINS IN 
  SOUTHEAST COLORADO...HUERFANO COUNTY...PUEBLO COUNTY AND 
  WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT

* THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ALONG THE
  SOUTHEAST COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY
  AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
  LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL WILL
  HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THE
  STORMS...COMBINED WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS
  DAYS...WILL RESULT IN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. 

* SOME LOCATIONS HAVING THE HIGHEST THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
  INCLUDE THE MATO VEGA...MAURICIO CANYON...MASON GULCH...AND
  HAYMAN WILDFIRE BURN SCARS. ALSO...AREAS IN EASTERN FREMONT
  COUNTY AND WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN
  EARLIER THIS WEEK...WILL BE AT AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
  FLOODING. FINALLY...URBAN AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25
  CORRIDOR... INCLUDING PLACES LIKE COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO...
  CANON CITY AND TRINIDAD...MAY SEE FLOODING PROBLEMS RELATED TO
  EXCESSIVE STORM WATER RUNOFF. PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN AND NEAR BURN
  SCARS...OR IN AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS THE LAST FEW
  DAYS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER DURING
  THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
  SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

$$

HODANISH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
453 AM MDT FRI JUL 7 2006

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

...STILL HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...

ON THE FENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AGAIN
FOR TODAY.  OPTED NOT TO FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS.  THE MAIN ONE IS
PROBABLY THIS.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE A
FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...GENERALLY FROM THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD (INSTEAD OF EASTWARD)...BRINGING RAIN TO AREAS
THAT ARENT SO SOAKED AS AREAS FARTHER EAST.  THE MAIN INSTIGATOR TO
THE PRECIP OVER THE WEST APPEARS TO BE THE BIG SLUG OF MONSOON
MOISTURE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE PICTURES TRACKING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
AZ AND WESTERN NM THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT
THIS MOISTURE WILL HAVE AS MUCH IMPACT FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  OVER THE EAST...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DROP A LITTLE COMPARED TO THURSDAY.  ALSO...CONVECTION
LOOKS TO GET A LATE START (AGAIN) WITH NOT AS MUCH COVERAGE AS
RECENT DAYS.  THEN FOR TONIGHT...THE QUESTION IS HOW SOON WILL THE
BOUNDARY ARRIVE IN EASTERN COLORADO TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION OVER THE
EAST.  IN PREVIOUS RUNS...IT LOOKED LIKE IT WOULD MOVE IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS AT THAT TIME.
HOWEVER...NOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING.  SO DOESNT LOOK LIKE THIS WILL BE MUCH OF FACTOR
IN PROVIDING A PRECIPITATION FOCUS OVER THE EAST...AT LEAST FOR
TONIGHT.

THE ONE AREA THAT CONTINUES TO RAISE QUESTIONS IS THE UPPER ARKANSAS
VALLEY...INCLUDING FREMONT COUNTY...THE AREA RECENTLY POUNDED BY
FLOODING RAINS.  THEY HAD A BREAK FROM THE RAIN THURSDAY...WHICH IS
A BIG PLUS IN REDUCING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER...THE NAM12 IS DEVELOPING A RATHER PERSISTENT AREA OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THIS REGION TONIGHT...WITH 12 HOUR TOTALS
APPROACHING 1 INCH.  IF THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN FALLS SPREAD OUT OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT...I THINK ALL WILL BE FINE.  HOWEVER...IF IT
COMES IN ONE BIG CHUNK (FOLLOWING IN AN HOUR OR 2)...OR IF THERE
ENDS UP BEING AREAS OF MUCH HEAVIER RAINFALL...THEN WERE IN
TROUBLE... MORE FLOODING PROBLEMS COULD ENSUE.  SINCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOOD PRODUCING RAIN FALLS IN THE 2ND FORECAST PERIOD...I WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW...AND ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO
MAKE THE CALL BASED ON LATER DATA.

IN ANY EVENT...WITH THE MONSOON PLUME STILL AROUND...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL RANGING FROM 3 QUARTERS OF INCH TO
AN INCH AND A THIRD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TODAY...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.  SO...MORE URBAN AND/OR
SMALL STREAM FLOOD PROBLEMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.

BRIEFLY...WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP UP A BIT...CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.  THESE TEMPS ARE JUST ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... FINALLY. LW

.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)

NOT MANY CHANGES FROM LAST NIGHTS THINKING WITH METEOROLOGICAL
ISSUES REMAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AND THEN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP
NEXT WEEK.

LATEST LONGER TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY SURGE TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF CWFA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL PROJECTED TO REMAIN OVER CWFA
DURING THE WEEKEND AND THIS COMBINED WITH PROXIMITY OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO BE NOTED...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE...WILL INSERT MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND ADJUST INHERITED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DOWN A CATEGORY OR SO ON SATURDAY. WILL ALSO TREND TEMPERATURES
DOWN ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH CONTINUED MAINLY SCATTERED POPS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME WILL ATTEMPT TO DEPART
CWFA BY LATER MONDAY...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN DEPICTED LAST
NIGHT. AT ANY RATE AS DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS...EXPECT DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
700 MB TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RUN IN THE 17C TO 19C RANGE IN
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. OVERALL...GRADIENT WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY
WELL BEHAVED DURING THE LONG TERM...WITH HEALTHIEST GRADIENT WINDS
EXPECTED FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
706 AM MDT FRI JUL 7 2006

COZ058>089-093>099-081315-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
706 AM MDT FRI JUL 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.  RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED
AN INCH PER HOUR RESULTING IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
PROBLEMS.

THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN TODAY GENERALLY LIES WEST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  AREAS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COULD ALSO SEE
HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE NUMBER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE FEWER.

WILDFIRE SCARS...URBANIZED AREAS...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN
RECENT FLOODING OR HEAVY RAIN...WILL ALL BE ESPECIALLY SUBJECT TO
FLOOD PROBLEMS SHOULD HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP.

LATE TONIGHT...THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.  HOWEVER...TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT IS STILL
IN QUESTION.  LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS COMING IN OVERNIGHT NOW
INDICATE THE FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.
IF THIS IS THE CASE...LITTLE OR NO INCREASE IN RAINFALL WILL BE
EXPECTED UNTIL THEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A MOIST AIRMASS IS PROJECTED TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING THE HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
FLOODING THREAT TO CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ONCE
AGAIN...URBAN AREAS...SMALL STREAMS...ARROYOS...AND BURN SCARS
WILL ALL BE SUBJECT TO FLASH FLOODING.

DUE TO MOIST SOILS...THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN REPEATED HEAVY RAINS THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED
DAILY BASED ON THE PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL...OTHER WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH...HAZARDOUS LIGHTNING AND HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER
IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...HAIL
UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER AND HAZARDOUS LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO.