Winter Weather Advisory 4, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 230201
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
901 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-231115-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0003.060123T0300Z-060123T2300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
901 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CONTINUED THE 
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY. FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES
OF SNOW ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, ENDING
AS A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
 
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND BECOME HEAVIER AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY DAYBREAK. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY EVENING.

A COMPOSITE OF DOPPLER RADARS SHOWED PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS 
THE MARYLAND PENNSYLVANIA BORDER BUT MOST OF IT WAS EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SATURATED AND
ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO EXTEND TO THE GROUND OVERNIGHT.

THE TEMPERATURES IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 30S THIS
EVENING AND WILL FALL TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 20S OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE
EVENT. HOWEVER... TOWARD THE END THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN AS THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR FREEZING. ALL
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BEFORE MONDAY EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

NJZ007-008-PAZ061-062-231115-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.060123T0300Z-060123T1700Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
901 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CONTINUED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY. TWO TO FIVE INCHES OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING, MIXED WITH
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES.

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND BECOME HEAVIER AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY DAYBREAK. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY EVENING. 

COMPOSITE OF DOPPLER RADARS SHOWED PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS 
THE MARYLAND PENNSYLVANIA BORDER BUT MOST OF IT WAS EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SATURATED AND
ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO EXTEND TO THE GROUND OVERNIGHT.

THE TEMPERATURES IN THE ADVISORY AREA ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
THIS EVENING, BUT WILL BE FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME DURING THIS EVENT BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
 


$$

NJZ009-010-PAZ060-068-069-231100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.060123T0300Z-060123T1100Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...READING...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
901 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CONTINUED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST
AREAS OF CONCERN ARE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF BERKS, MONTGOMERY,
BUCKS, HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET COUNTIES.

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND BECOME HEAVIER AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY DAYBREAK. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY EVENING. 

COMPOSITE OF DOPPLER RADARS SHOWED PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS 
THE MARYLAND PENNSYLVANIA BORDER BUT MOST OF IT WAS EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SATURATED AND
ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO EXTEND TO THE GROUND OVERNIGHT.
 
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING ARE IN THE UPPER 30S THIS EVENING BUT
WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
 

 

$$


EBERWINE

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 230833
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
333 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

NJZ007-PAZ061-062-231300-
/O.EXB.KPHI.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-060123T1300Z/
/O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.060123T1300Z-060123T1700Z/
WARREN-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON
333 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS
MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY. 

LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY, A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING.

SNOW AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE AND COULD ACCUMULATE AROUND 2 INCHES
IN THE VALLEYS AND UP TO 4 INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER, THE GREATER CONCERN IS FREEZING RAIN, WHICH
COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO 1/4 INCH BY DAYBREAK. FREEZING RAIN, IS BY
FAR, THE WORST TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR TRAVELERS. ROAD
CONDITIONS COULD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
RECEIVING FREEZING RAIN.

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, SLOW DOWN, ALLOW EXTRA DISTANCE BETWEEN
YOURSELF AND OTHER VEHICLES, AND ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH
YOUR DESTINATION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S BY LATE MORNING 
AND THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AT THAT 
TIME.


$$

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-231700-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-060123T2300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
333 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW HAS BEGUN FALLING OVER THE
AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FOUR TO EIGHT
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION ENDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE TEMPERATURES IN THE WARNING RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ALL SNOW
FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE EVENT. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END BEFORE MONDAY EVENING.

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, SLOW DOWN, ALLOW EXTRA DISTANCE BETWEEN
YOURSELF AND OTHER VEHICLES, AND ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH
YOUR DESTINATION.


$$

NJZ009-010-PAZ060-068-069-231300-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-060123T1300Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...READING...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
333 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY, A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING.

ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUNTERDON, SOMERSET, MONTGOMERY AND
BUCKS COUNTIES, AS WELL AS BERKS COUNTY, SNOW AND SLEET ARE
POSSIBLE AND COULD ACCUMULATE 1 TO 3 INCHES BY DAYBREAK. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING RAIN. ROAD CONDITIONS COULD
DETERIORATE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BUCKS, MONTGOMERY, SOMERSET, AND HUNTERDON COUNTIES,
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER, THE RAIN
MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
 
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, SLOW DOWN, ALLOW EXTRA DISTANCE BETWEEN
YOURSELF AND OTHER VEHICLES, AND ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH
YOUR DESTINATION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S BY LATE MORNING 
AND THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AT THAT 
TIME.


$$

NJZ008-231700-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-060123T1700Z/
MORRIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MORRISTOWN
333 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY, A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING.

SNOW AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE AND COULD ACCUMULATE AROUND 1 INCH IN
THE VALLEYS AND UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY
DAYBREAK THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING RAIN. ROAD
CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, SLOW DOWN, ALLOW EXTRA DISTANCE BETWEEN
YOURSELF AND OTHER VEHICLES, AND ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH
YOUR DESTINATION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S BY LATE MORNING 
AND THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AT THAT 
TIME.


$$

NIERENBERG

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 231140
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
640 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

NJZ007-PAZ061-062-231700-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-060123T1300Z/
/O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.060123T1140Z-060123T1700Z/
WARREN-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON
640 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. 

PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED TO RAIN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WERE STILL BEING REPORTED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN AND TURN TO RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY NOON.

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL THIS MORNING...SLOW DOWN...ALLOW EXTRA
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOURSELF AND OTHER VEHICLES...AND ALLOW PLENTY OF
TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

NJZ009-010-PAZ068-069-231245-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-060123T1300Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NORRISTOWN...
DOYLESTOWN
640 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE AREA HAS
TURNED TO RAIN. 

$$

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-231945-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-060123T2300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
640 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

THE TEMPERATURES IN THE WARNING AREA RANGE RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO THE LOWER 30S...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE AS SNOW OR
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATE ICING ALSO. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END BEFORE MONDAY EVENING.

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN...ALLOW EXTRA DISTANCE BETWEEN
YOURSELF AND OTHER VEHICLES...AND ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH
YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

NJZ008-231700-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-060123T1700Z/
MORRIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MORRISTOWN
640 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY.

PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED TO RAIN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WERE STILL BEING REPORTED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN AND TURN TO RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY NOON.

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL THIS MORNING...SLOW DOWN...ALLOW EXTRA
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOURSELF AND OTHER VEHICLES...AND ALLOW PLENTY OF
TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

PAZ060-231300-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-060123T1300Z/
BERKS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...READING
640 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS
MORNING.

PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED TO RAIN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WERE STILL BEING REPORTED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN AND TURN TO RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL EARLY THIS MORNING...SLOW DOWN...ALLOW EXTRA
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOURSELF AND OTHER VEHICLES...AND ALLOW PLENTY OF
TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MPD

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 231305
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

PAZ060-231415-
/O.EXP.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-060123T1300Z/
BERKS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...READING
805 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM EST THIS MORNING...

AT 8:00 AM, TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN
BERKS COUNTY. AS A RESULT, NO ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-231700-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-060123T2300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
805 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

TEMPERATURES IN THE WARNING AREA RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S, ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE AS SNOW OR SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITH MODERATE ICING ALSO. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END BEFORE EVENING.

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, SLOW DOWN. ALLOW EXTRA DISTANCE BETWEEN YOURSELF
AND OTHER VEHICLES AND ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

NJZ007-008-PAZ061-062-231700-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-060123T1700Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
805 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED TO RAIN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WERE STILL BEING REPORTED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN AND TURN TO RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY NOON.

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL THIS MORNING, SLOW DOWN. ALLOW EXTRA DISTANCE
BETWEEN YOURSELF AND OTHER VEHICLES AND ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 231505
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1005 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-232300-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-060123T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0005.060123T1505Z-060123T2300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
1005 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE POCONO REGION IN PENNSYLVANIA AND
SUSSEX COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY, MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
TO RAIN AND DRIZZLE BY MID MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

AT 10:00 AM, TEMPERATURES REMAINED AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, THERE
MAY BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION.

IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS MAY BE ICE
COVERED AND SLIPPERY. IF YOU WILL BE VENTURING OUT TODAY, USE
EXTRA CARE.

$$

NJZ007-008-PAZ061-062-231615-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-060123T1700Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
1005 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

AT 10:00 AM, TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK
THROUGHOUT LEHIGH COUNTY AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA,
AND WARREN COUNTY AND MORRIS COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY. AS A RESULT, NO
ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED AND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

IOVINO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1115 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2006

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY)...
STATUS QUO THIS MORNING CONCERNING OUR FIRST PERIOD. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS(ONLY THE HIGH VARIETY
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE DELMARVA). OTHERWISE, THE SCA HAS EXPIRED ON
OUR NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PAZ054-055 FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM
     MONDAY.
  ...FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ060>062-067>071 FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM
     MONDAY.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NJZ001 FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY.
  ...FLOOD WATCH FOR NJZ007>010-012-013-015>020-027 FROM 7 AM
     MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY.
DE...FLOOD WATCH FOR DEZ001 FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY.
MD...FLOOD WATCH FOR MDZ008 FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ450>455 FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6
     PM MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
THERE IS NOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM ON
THE MAIN FEATURES WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STATES TODAY, MOVE UP THE
APPALACHIANS AND REDEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA BY 12Z MONDAY, AND
THEN LIFT NE. THE COMPLICATING ISSUE IS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH, WHICH CANNOT GIVE A LOT OF GROUND BECAUSE OF
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MID
LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS A SLUGGISH, IF NOT ENTREANCHED, HIGH.
SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING UP AS A BIT MORE
PRONOUNCED REGARDING THE SURFACE RIDING INTO OUR NWRN ZONES INTO
MONDAY, AND SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS AND STAT GUIDANCE ARE FAVORING A
PERIOD OF FZRA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE NWRN FA DURING THE MID TO
LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOLLOWED BY SOME ICING, WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THE THREE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. WE WILL NOT TIE NEXT
SHIFTS HANDS ANY MORE BY ISSUING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME. FZRA FCSTS ARE VERY TENUOUS, AND NEXT SHIFT CAN DECIDE
IF ANY ADVISORIES, OR ANY OTHER WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS, ARE
WARRANTED.

ELSEWHERE, MODEL QPF HAS BEEN PRETTY STABLE OR JUST A BIT ON THE
INCREASE WITH PROGESSIVE RUNS, AND ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT
FROM MODEL TO MODEL, SINCE LAST NIGHT, WITH 1 TO 1.3 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THERE IS AN H9 UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW THAT WE NOTE AS THE COMPLEX LOW APPROACHES, ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT TERRIBLY STRONG. H8 DWPTS DONT GO CRAZY, BUT CLIMB TO 4 TO 8
DEG C FOR A TIME ON A DECENT SRLY FLOW. NO SURFACE INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST, SO WE ARE NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION
ENHANCING PCPN.

WE DRY THINGS OUT ON MONDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING TEMPS, WE NUDGED UP MAXES TODAY NORTHERN ZONES, AND
STAYED WITH CONTINUITY CENTRAL AND SOUTH, GIVEN PRESENT TEMPS,
EXPECTED SHIFT OF SURFACE WINDS FROM NORTH TO EAST, AND SUNSHINE
FOR AT LEAST FIRST PART OF DAY. WE MAINTAIN THE AROUND MIDNIGHT
MIN TEMPS IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD, AND MENTION THIS IN THE TEXT
PRODUCT WHERE IT IS IMPORTANT TO PTYPE. WE ALSO KEEP THE SURFACE
COLD AIR IN OVER THE NWRN ZONES PER THE MOST STUBBORN OF THE STAT
GUIDANCE, CONSISTENT WITH PTYPE. CONTINUITY AND STAT GUIDANCE
WORKED PRETTY WELL TOGETHER FOR MON AND MON NIGHT. WE DID MAKE
SURE THAT THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHRUNK TO MINIMIAL
VALUES ONCE THE PCPN EVENT IS IN FULL SWING.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ONLY CHANGE WE MADE, IN DEFERENCE TO THE APPARENT STRENGTH OF THE
MID LEVEL TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING OUTBREAK OF COLD
WEATHER, WAS TO PUSH THE CHANCE OF SHSN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON TUE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES MADE. PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION:

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN A RETURN TO WINTER TEMPS FOR OUR ENTIRE
REGION.  EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT, AND PERHAPS SNOW
SHOWERS UP NORTH, THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN COLD AND RELATIVELY
QUIET THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE JET
STREAM CIRRUS, BUT IT SHOULD BE INNOCUOUS THIS MORNING. THEN, AS
OVERRUNNING DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON, WE LOOK FOR TYPICAL
WARM-FRONTAL WEATHER TO UNFOLD AND THE CIRRUS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AND THICKEN AND LOWER AS NIGHTFALL APPROACHES. THEN, WITH A LOW
LEVEL CONTRIBUTION TO MOISTURE, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY INVADE THE
AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING, WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

WHAT THIS TRANSLATED TO IN THE 06Z TAFS WAS A GRADUAL LOWERING OF
CEILINGS, STILL VFR, INTO THIS EVENING, THEN A FAIRLY RAPID
TRANSITION TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS TOWARD OR BY MIDNIGHT. WITH
THE 12Z TAFS, WE PLAN TO LOWER CONDITIONS TO LOW MVFR WITH TEMPORARY
IFR CONDITIONS, AS ALL MOS GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO,
AS RAIN FALLS MORE HEAVILY AND IMPEDES VISIBILITIES BY MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP A MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING, AS WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING
TO OVER 25 KT AND SEAS WERE STILL 5 OR 6 FT AT BUOY 44009. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING, BUT
WE ADDED A COUPLE OF HOURS LEEWAY TO 14Z JUST TO BE ON THE SAFE
SIDE. THE SCA CAN BE TAKEN DOWN EARLY IF NEED BE.

OTHERWISE, WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TONIGHT AND BRUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY, THEN MOVING EAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT, WE ACCEPTED THE WAVEWATCH SOLUTION OF INCREASING SEAS
SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 5 FEET IN THE ADMITTEDLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.
THUS, WE ADDED A HAZARD GRID FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FROM 08Z TO 23Z MONDAY. THIS IS BEYOND WHAT WAVEWATCH
FORECASTS, AS THEY HAVE SEAS SUBSIDING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO, WE
FELT THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER GUSTS, SO THIS ADDED TO OUR
DECISION TO BUMP THE SEAS UP A BIT.

THEN, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PAST THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT, ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS EXIST. THIS
WOULD BRING A RENEWED NORTHWEST FLOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, AGAIN WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES...
SINCE WE ARE IN BETWEEN FULL AND NEW MOON, THE TIDAL RANGE IS NOT AS
GREAT. CONSEQUENTLY, WHEN CONSIDERING THE CONTRIBUTION OF TIDAL
ANOMALIES AS DEPICTED BY THE NGM AND AVIATION STORM SURGE GUIDANCE,
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE NO TIDAL FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH THE
APPROACHING WEATHER EVENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RECENT RAINS HAVE PUSHED HEADWATER GUIDANCE DOWN TO OR BELOW
1.5 INCHES IN SIX HOURS FOR SEVERAL OF OUR STREAMS AROUND THE FA.
GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND MUCH OF THE FA THAT
APPROACH OR REACH THE GUIDANCE VALUES, WE FELT A FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE AREAS FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW JERSEY, NORTH DELAWARE
AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND WAS WARRANTED.

&&

SHORT TERM/HYDROLOGY...DELISI
LONG TERM...IOVINO/DELISI
AVIATION/MARINE/TIDES.../

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
500 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2006

ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-
007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-231100-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
500 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND
NEW JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOW, SLEET,
AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, FOR NORTH CENTRAL, CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW JERSEY,
AND FOR NORTH DELAWARE AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND FOR MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MPD