Special Marine Warning 39, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1245 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

.UPDATE /OVERNIGHT/...
SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO SPRUCE UP SKY COVER AND POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
REMNANTS OF THE MCS MOVED ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF TO
THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS, MOST OF THEM
QUITE LIGHT. A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER WERE HEARD, THE LARGEST STORM
DEVELOPING NEAR OCEAN CITY, NJ AROUND NOON. THE CLOUD COVER MOVED
EAST AND RAPIDLY THINNED ALLOWING PLENTY OF HEATING AND TEMPERATURES
TO RISE TO PREDICTED LEVELS. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY DECAY INTO ANOTHER MCS LATER
TONIGHT. THE FUN BEGINS TOMORROW AS THE FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES.
ONCE AGAIN, SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
DONT EXPECT AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
HIGH AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME ACTIVE BY MID AFTERNOON. ONCE
IN THE FRONTAL ZONE, SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THEREFORE, WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM
NOON FRIDAY TO 5 AM SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWER QPF
AMOUNTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN TO OUR AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE WATCH MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS IS CORRECT, BUT WELL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK WET THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR OUR AREA WITH EMBEDDED WAVES
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THESE WAVES MOVING THROUGH, ALONG WITH
A NUMBER OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH AS WELL, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WE WILL
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER, THOUGH PREDICTING MORE THAN A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS OF 230 PM, SKIES HAD CLEARED IN MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH SOME CU AND
STRATOCU WERE POPPING UP MAINLY OVER EASTERN PA AND NRN NJ.
CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SOME POSSIBLE TSTMS TO FORM
LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING AND WE HAVE INCLUDED SOME CB WITH A 4 THSD
FT CIG IN THE TAF TEMPO GROUPS SINCE THEY WILL BE HIT AND MISS WITH
MOST AREAS MISSING THEM. LATER TONIGHT, HAZE AND LIGHT FOG ARE
EXPECT TO FORM AGAIN WITH GENLY 3-5 MI VSBY ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER
VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. AFTER 6Z TNGT,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO PCPN MENTIONED IN THE TAFS, CONVECTION LEFT
OVER FROM THE TSTMS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE HEADED EAST AND COULD
AFFECT THE AREA. FRIDAY AFTERNOON, TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WESTERN ATLC, THE
FORECAST WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 3 FT ON DEL
BAY (HIGHEST S) WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KT. THERE IS A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF TSTMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ANY TSTMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071 FROM NOON
     FRIDAY TO 5 AM SUNDAY.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019 FROM NOON
     FRIDAY TO 5 AM SUNDAY.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DEZ001 FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 5 AM SUNDAY.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MDZ008 FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 5 AM SUNDAY.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...RNS
MARINE...RNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
451 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

ANZ430-431-450>455-470-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-
007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-231200-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE FROM 20 TO 40 NM-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
451 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND
NEW JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. THIS IS BASED ON THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES IN
OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA ARRIVING SOON ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WILL BE ONE
MORE INGREDIENT TO AN ALREADY VOLATILE SITUATION. MORE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA. IN
ADDITION FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO WGUS61 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ASSISTANCE MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TFG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1113 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     READING                 40.34N 75.93W
06/22/2006                   BERKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN COUNTYWIDE BETWEEN 1000 PM AND 1100
            PM.

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COATESVILLE             39.98N 75.82W
06/22/2006                   CHESTER            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS WIRES DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
            COUNTY BETWEEN 1030 PM AND 1100 PM.

&&

KRUZDLO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1131 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     READING                 40.34N 75.93W
06/22/2006                   BERKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN COUNTYWIDE BETWEEN 1000 PM AND 1100
            PM.

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COATESVILLE             39.98N 75.82W
06/22/2006                   CHESTER            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS WIRES DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
            COUNTY BETWEEN 1030 PM AND 1100 PM.

1100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE ALLENTOWN          40.56N 75.41W
06/22/2006                   LEHIGH             PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN SOUTH WHITEHALL TOWNSHIP AND UPPER SAUCON
            TOWNSHIP.

&&

KRUZDLO