Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
303 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

BASED ON RECENT RUC, NAM WRF, AND GFS MODEL RUNS, EXPECT TWO OR
THREE BANDS OF PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND. LOCAL RAIN AMOUNTS CAN GO OVER 1 OR 2 INCHES. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS 2-2.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LOWER THE MOISTURE CONTENT FRIDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS AS NAM AND GFS MOS
VALUES SHOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

COOLER WEATHER WILL INVADE THE REGION AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A COMFORTABLE WEEKEND WITH
LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP SHOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
IS FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...

BASED ON RECENT RADAR DATA AND RUC AND NAM WRF MODEL RUNS, EXPECT
THE FIRST BAND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY 18Z-21Z. FROM A CONSENSUS OF RUC AND NAM WRF MODEL RUNS,
EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY BETWEEN 01Z-06Z. HOWEVER, CONSIDERING CLIMATOLOGY, WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS AN INTERVENING BAND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TIME FRAME OF 21Z-00Z. THE FIRST TWO BANDS OF
STORMS HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE LAST BAND HAS MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

THE PREVAILING CLOUD BASES WILL BE BKN050 CUMULUS WITH VISIBILITIES
UNRESTRICTED. IN THUNDERSTORMS, FLIGHT CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE TO
3SM TSRA BR OVC020CB WITH LOCALIZED BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, 08Z, THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY
MUCH GONE, HOWEVER, SOME FOG AND STRATUS MAY DEVELOP (3SM BR
BKN020). BY 14Z, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO P6SM BKN040 CUMULUS.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY WESTERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN VEER (TURN
CLOCKWISE) INTO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SPEEDS CAN
BE 10-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS CAN
GO OVER 50KTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
441 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-
020>023-029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-040845-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-
VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-
ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-GREENE-
FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
PRESTON-TUCKER-
441 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MARYLAND...EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DISTRICT BY THIS EVENING WILL BRING
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CAUSE FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

OHZ041-PAZ009-013>016-020-022-WVZ001-031815-
ARMSTRONG PA-BEAVER PA-BUTLER PA-CLARION PA-COLUMBIANA OH-FOREST
PA-HANCOCK WV-JEFFERSON PA-LAWRENCE PA-
113 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...COLUMBIANA...FOREST...CLARION...JEFFERSON...BUTLER
...ARMSTRONG...LAWRENCE...BEAVER AND HANCOCK...

AT 112 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGH
INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES
NORTHWEST OF COOK FOREST STATE PARK TO LISBON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR OHIO AND THE PANHANDLE OF PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
800 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR OHIO.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
216 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

PAZ014>016-022-023-031915-
ARMSTRONG PA-BUTLER PA-CLARION PA-INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON PA-
216 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
CLARION...JEFFERSON...BUTLER...ARMSTRONG AND INDIANA...

AT 214 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGH
INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF REYNOLDSVILLE TO 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BUTLER...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  BUTLER...CHERRY TREE...CLYMER...CROOKED CREEK LAKE PARK...DAYTON...
  DORA...ELDERTON...FORD CITY...GLEN CAMPBELL...INDIANA...
  KITTANNING...LERNERVILLE...MARION CENTER...MUFF...NEW BETHLEHEM...
  PLUMVILLE...PUNXSUTAWNEY...REYNOLDSVILLE...SARVER...SAXONBURG...
  SHELOCTA AND SMICKSBURG

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR OHIO AND THE PANHANDLE OF PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
800 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR OHIO.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
234 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

OHZ040-041-031930-
CARROLL OH-COLUMBIANA OH-
234 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS...

THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
COLUMBIANA AND CARROLL...

AT 227 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGH
INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 6 MILES WEST OF MALVERN...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL
HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THESE STORMS ARE STRENGTHENING AS THE MOVE TO THE
EAST.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  AUGUSTA...EAST ROCHESTER...GUILFORD LAKE STATE PARK...HOMEWORTH...
  LEETONIA...MALVERN...MECHANICSTOWN AND MILLPORT

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR OHIO AND THE PANHANDLE OF PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
800 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR OHIO.

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