Wind Advisory 4, NWS Paducah, KY

Alexander County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Gibson County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Ballard County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Perry County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
308 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE CONTINUE TO BE POPS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS STEADILY...BUT EXCRUCIATINGLY SLOWLY...MOVED
EASTWARD THROUGH MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...IT HAS WEAKENED AS IT FINALLY DEVELOPED INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA RECENTLY. MEANWHILE BACK TO THE
WEST...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS REDEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF SURFACE
COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

NOT SURE OF EXACT EVOLUTION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...AS ANOTHER BAND OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES EAST
TOWARD SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.  THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO...SHOW WEAKENING QPF OVER EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT...WITH THE
PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.  FEEL BEST ABOUT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SO WILL FOCUS BEST POPS THERE...BUT WILL STILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE EASTERN ZONES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE OCCLUDED STORM SYSTEM NEAR SIOUX
FALLS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...INSTEAD OF EVENTUALLY SHOVING
THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH...THE MODEL CONSENSUS NOW IS TO
DRAW THIS LOW NORTHWARD INTO CANADA...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOWEST HEIGHTS AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT INSTABILITY OVER MISSOURI AHEAD OF WEAKENING
SURFACE BOUNDARY.  WILL SPREAD LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA
SUNDAY FOR REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVING OVER EASTERN
ZONES EARLY AND DIURNAL CONVECTION SPREADING OVER WESTERN HALF OF
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.  STILL FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS SUNDAY.  LIKELY POPS WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS NICE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET ROTATES OVER THE
REGION...HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE 12Z GFS WASHES OUT THE ORIGINAL SURFACE BOUNDARY MONDAY...AS
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.  ALSO HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AS THE OCCLUDED LOW LIFTS FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA.  THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SUNSHINE...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN.  HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT...FEEL THAT GOOD CHANCE POPS WILL SUFFICE FOR
NOW.

WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER
DECAYING FRONT AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION...ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.  WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE JUMPING ON BETTER POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME THREAT OF SEVERE DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT WITH WARMING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IT IS NOT AS
LIKELY AS SUNDAY.

TRIED TO SHADE TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK FOR THE
PAH FCST AREA. RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW AND LOWERING SFC PRESSURES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
THU. THE GFS MAY BE A BIT FAST WITH THE PCPN...FROPA...AND THE
PARENT MID LEVEL LOW IN SRN CANADA...COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES/
ECMWF. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW THE OVERALL
PATTERN WLL EVOLVE...SO A LOW CHC POP WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR
THU/THU NITE/FRI...WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC FOR FRI NITE. DAY7 LOOKS DRY
AND COOL FOR NOW...BEST WE CAN TELL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

DRS/DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
432 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-301000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
432 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND THE PURCHASE AND LAKES AREAS
OF WEST KENTUCKY. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING...AND MAY STILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY
OVER THE REGION...THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY WEAKEN TO JUST ANOTHER
BAND OF SHOWERS BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
THIS PERIOD.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
THIS PERIOD EITHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTERS ARE ALSO URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST OUTLOOKS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

DRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
419 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2006

ILZ075>077-080>086-088-MOZ076-086-087-100-300000-
BOLLINGER MO-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-HAMILTON IL-
JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-PERRY IL-PERRY MO-SALINE IL-UNION IL-
WAYNE IL-WAYNE MO-WHITE IL-WILLIAMSON IL-
419 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2006

...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH DUSK...

INTERMITTENT GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH 7 PM...
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI TO
WAYNE CITY ILLINOIS.

THE GUSTY WINDS WERE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN THAT DOTTED THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THESE WINDS MAY TOSS AROUND LOOSE OBJECTS LEFT OUTDOORS AND CAUSE
WEAKENED BUILDINGS OR TREES TO FALL OVER. DRIVERS IN HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES...SUCH AS TRACTOR TRAILER TRUCKS AND RECREATIONAL
VEHICLES...MAY ENCOUNTER DIFFICULTY STEERING...ESPECIALLY WHEN
DRIVING ON WEST OR EAST ORIENTED ROADS.

THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING...AS MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
535 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MARION                  37.73N 88.94W
04/29/2006                   WILLIAMSON         IL   PUBLIC

            2 FOOT DIAMETER TREE BLOWN DOWN. FELL ON SMALL SHED WHICH
            WAS DESTROYED AND IS BLOCKING BOYTON STREET.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
803 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
04/29/2006                   VANDERBURGH        IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DOWNED TREE LIMBS HAD BROUGHT POWER OUTAGES TO AROUND 700
            HOMES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF EVANSVILLE.

&&

SMITTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
838 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>007-010-014-018-MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114-300500-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-
CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CRITTENDEN KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-LIVINGSTON KY-
MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MISSISSIPPI MO-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY IL-
PERRY MO-PIKE IN-POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-
SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-STODDARD MO-UNION IL-UNION KY-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE IL-WAYNE MO-WHITE IL-WILLIAMSON IL-
838 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2006

...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH STILL LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING...

INTERMITTENT GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THESE GUSTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES IN EVANSVILLE INDIANA AND OVER PARTS OF
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING. REPORTS OF
SOME TREE LIMBS AND A FEW TREES DOWN HAVE ALSO BEEN RELAYED BY
SPOTTERS AND COMMERCIAL TELEVISION STATIONS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...A FEW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
45 AND 55 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

THESE WINDS WILL TOSS AROUND LOOSE OBJECTS LEFT OUTDOORS AND CAUSE
WEAKENED BUILDINGS OR TREES TO FALL OVER. ANY TREE LIMBS OR SMALL
TREES THAT FALL ON POWER LINES COULD CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

IN ADDITION...DRIVERS OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...SUCH AS TRACTOR
TRAILER TRUCKS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES...MAY ENCOUNTER DIFFICULTY
STEERING...ESPECIALLY WHEN DRIVING ON WEST OR EAST ORIENTED ROADS.

AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF A LINE FROM OWENSBORO AND PADUCAH KENTUCKY...ONWARD
TO NEW MADRID MISSOURI.

THE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AROUND MIDNIGHT...AS MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.

SMITH