Tornado Warning 68, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
231 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE STORM AND
FLOODING CHANCES. ALSO MAY HAVE TO EXTEND FF.A PAST 23Z. WILL
COORDINATE AND MAKE THE CALL AT PRESS TIME.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE PAH CWA. RADAR LOOPS DETECTED STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VIS SAT LOOP INDICATES PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WHICH WAS CONTRIBUTING TO KEEPING INSTABILITY LOWER THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THUS SPC DOWNGRADED
TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AREA.

THE 12Z ETA AND GFS SOUNDINGS HAS CAPES RANGING FROM 1000 AND 2000
J/KG...RESPECTIVELY. K INDICIES OF 31 SHOWALTERS RANGING FROM -1 IN
SWIN TO -6 IN SEMO. THUS INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT. HOWEVER
THAT COMBINED WITH FROPA AND NEARBY SFC LOW DO THINK SLIGHT RISK IS
APPROPRIATE. THE MAIN THREAT AT HAND ATTM IS POTENTIAL FLOODING.
HAVE HAD SOME EVACUATIONS...MAINLY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...AND
NUMEROUS COUNTIES REPORTED AT OR NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS ON MOST
STREAMS...CREEKS...DITCHES...AND SMALL RIVERS.

THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LIFT AND
LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS TO THE NORTH.
EVEN THOUGH THUNDER IS QUESTIONABLE AT ALL...WITH MAJOR COLD POOL
MOVING OVERHEAD...WITH -20C AROUND 16K FEET AND WET BULB ZERO AROUND
6K FEET. ANYTHING THAT FALLS COULD CONTAIN HAIL/SLEET. SO AS PER
SWODY2 DISC OPTED TO INTRO ISOLATED THUNDER THURSDAY. AFTER THAT
ATTEMPTED TO KEEPS POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST WHERE I COULD BUT
MAINTAINING POPS WHEN BEST CHCS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE WEEK.
REALLY DONT THINK IT WILL RAIN DAY AND NIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. BUT WITH TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUE AS UPPER LOW
MEANDERS TO THE NORTH.

AS FOR TEMPS JUST TWEAKS HERE AND THERE TO MOSTLY FOR COLLABORATION.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BALLARD-
     CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-
     FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-
     MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-
     WEBSTER.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOLLINGER-
     BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY
     MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALEXANDER-
     EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-
     WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GIBSON-PIKE-
     POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

KH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1027 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-111000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1027 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING
THAT CAN TAKE PLACE. SATELLITE SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF CLOUD
COVER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE
CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED. THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
528 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     TORNADO          EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
05/10/2006                   VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN IN LANDFILL ON NORTH SIDE OF
            EVANSVILLE. TRACKED NORTHEAST THROUGH A CLUMP OF TREES
            CAUSING DEBRIS...LIFTED FOR 3 MINUTES AND THEN BREIFLY
            TOUCHED DOWN AGAIN IN AN OPEN FIELD.

&&

SMITTY