Tornado Warning 110, NWS Paducah, KY

000 
WWUS53 KPAH 230039
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
737 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

KYC075-105-230047-
/O.CAN.KPAH.TO.W.0110.000000T0000Z-060923T0100Z/
HICKMAN KY-FULTON KY-
737 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR FULTON AND HICKMAN COUNTIES IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE WARNED AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS 
BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3650 8881 3659 8881 3662 8866 3662 8863
      3663 8859 3663 8856 3665 8852 3665 8850
      3650 8850

$$

KYC083-230100-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0110.000000T0000Z-060923T0100Z/
GRAVES KY-
737 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR GRAVES
COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

AT 735 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6
MILES SOUTHEAST OF WATER VALLEY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE LYNNVILLE.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL OF AT LEAST 
QUARTER SIZE AND 70 MPH WINDS.

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE INDOORS...AND TAKE SHELTER IN A BASEMENT OR
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF CAUGHT IN THE OPEN...SEEK
SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT.

LAT...LON 3650 8881 3659 8881 3662 8866 3662 8863
      3663 8859 3663 8856 3665 8852 3665 8850
      3650 8850

$$

RP/MY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
245 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT LIFTING OVER
THE PAH FA...WITH TDS IN THE L70S IN THE WARM SECTOR SUPPLANTING
L-M60S TDS HANGING ON IN THE NRN/ERN PTNS FA. FREE CONVECTION
INITIATED IN THE SCOURED OUT ZONE TO OUR WEST...WHICH IS THE FOCUS
OF THE TORNADO WATCH OVER OUR WRN 1/3 OF THE FA...WHERE MDT RISK OF
SVR EXISTS. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PICKING UP ON THIS CONVECTION
AND RACING IT EWARD INTO SEMO BETWEEN 00-06Z...SPREADING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. PWS NR 1.5-2 NEARBY/UPSTREAM HELPING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND IN COMBO W/HPC QPF DAYS1-2 SUPPORT ONGOING FFA
THRU END OF EVENT.

AFTER TONIGHTS ROUND ALL EYES TURN TO COLD FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES SAT PM/EVENING. BETTER DYNAMICS ENTER THE PICTURE BY THEN AS
THE UPPER LOW/JET DRIVES THE FRONT ON THRU...TEXT OF SWODY2
CONSISTENTLY HINTING AT UPGRADE TO MDT RISK. WL THEREFORE HIGHLIGHT
SVR THREAT BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN THREAT.

GFS HAVING REALLY BEEN MODEL OF CHOICE DUE TO ITS CONSISTENCY...IT
TAKES THE FRONT EAST OF THE FA (A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM) BY 06Z
SUN. HOWEVER FOR COLLABORATIVE PURPOSES WE LINGERING A SMALL CHANCE
OF POST FRONTAL PCPN IN THE FAR SE EARLY SUN. AFTER THAT A DRIER AND
SEASONALLY COOLER AIR MASS WORKS AND HOLDS THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

BY DAYS 6-7...NEXT SYSTEM YIELDS CHC PCPN FA-WIDE. FOR NOW HAVE
BOUGHT GFS SO STICKING W/IT AND THE COLLABORATIVE PICTURE IS OUR
APPROACH...BUT ACKNOWLEDGE SOME TIMING/INCONSISTENCY MAY EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO ADJUSTMENTS AND IS WHY WE KEEP CHC CAT PCPN DESPITE MOS
SUGGESTIONS FOR HIGHER.

MET AND MAV MOS IS CLOSE WHILE FWC MOS SEEMS OVERDONE ON BOTH THE
HIGH AND LOW ENDS AND UNDERDONE ON PCPN. OUR OVERALL GFS PREFERENCE
LEANS US TO ITS MAV/MEX BASED MOS WHEN LEANING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL COUNTIES.
MO...TOR WATCH AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL COUNTIES.
IL...TOR WATCH ALONG/WEST OF I-24 AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL COUNTIES.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL COUNTIES.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
129 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088-089-092-093-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-
114-231000-
JEFFERSON-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-UNION IL-JOHNSON-
ALEXANDER-PULASKI-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-
CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
129 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA...AND INTERACT WITH A DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THE SHEAR ALONG
THE FRONT AND ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH INSTABILITY. THE
INSTABILITY WILL IN LARGE PART BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THAT CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO THREATS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
ALSO IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT ALSO LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY
BE POSSIBLE. THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE NOW FOR THE TORNADO WATCH AND BE ALERT
FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE REQUESTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ILZ076>078-082-083-086-087-090-091-094-INZ081-082-085>088-
KYZ001>022-231000-
WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-HAMILTON-WHITE-SALINE-GALLATIN-POPE-
HARDIN-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-
FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-
MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-
HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
129 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
WABASH RIVER IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST OF THE LAKES OVER THE
JACKSON PURCHASE OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN KENTUCKY...EAST OF THE LAKES AND ACROSS THE PENNYRILE.THESE
RISKS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. A MORE ISOLATED TORNADIC AND
LARGE HAIL THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE...AND AS A RESULT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT ALSO LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY
BE POSSIBLE. THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ANYTIME DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             3 N EVANSVILLE          38.13N 89.93W
09/22/2006  E1.25 INCH       RANDOLPH           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLASH FLOODING WAS ALSO REPORTED AT KORSLE ROAD AND HWY
            66...

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
647 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N ROCKPORT            37.91N 87.05W
09/22/2006  E70 MPH          SPENCER            IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ALSO...DIME SIZED HAIL WAS ALSO REPORTED.

0643 PM     HAIL             GRANDVIEW               37.94N 86.98W
09/22/2006  E1.00 INCH       SPENCER            IN   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
654 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N MOUNT VERNON        37.95N 87.90W
09/22/2006                   POSEY              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER TO DOORS OF 4 WHEEL DRIVE VEHICLES...SOME VEHICLES
            HAVE BEEN STRANDED.

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
704 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
09/22/2006                   VANDERBURGH        IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ST. JOSEPH AVENUE IN EVANSVILLE IS IMPASSABLE

0658 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
09/22/2006                   VANDERBURGH        IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NORTH SIDE OF EVANSVILLE...AT FIRST AVENUE FROM
            CAMPGROUND TO MILL...1 FOOT OF WATER OVER ROAD.

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
09/22/2006                   VANDERBURGH        IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3 FEET OF WATER OVER BAMGART ST AND 1 FOOT OF WATER ON
            DIAMOND AVENUE NEAR NORTH HIGH SCHOOL.

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
708 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GRANDVIEW               37.94N 86.98W
09/22/2006                   SPENCER            IN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WATER OVER SEVERAL ROADS IN GRANDVIEW...CREEKS OUT OF
            THEIR BANKS

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
710 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S HENDERSON           37.78N 87.58W
09/22/2006  E60 MPH          HENDERSON          KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ALSO VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS REPORTED.

&&

DLL