Flash Flood Warning 78, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
336 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER TODAY WILL BE AS BAD AS FRIDAY.

BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION NEARLY STATIONARY LAST FEW HOURS ALONG
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SURVIVING ON THE STRENGTH
OF A 40KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET BRINGING A CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF RICH
MOISTURE INTO THE LINE. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN MINIMAL
THE LAST FEW HOURS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO
WORSEN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY. WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER FFWS...SEE NO REASON TO MESS WITH THE FFA
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.

NONE OF THE 00Z MODELS HAS A DECENT CLUE ABOUT THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...SO FORECAST GOING FORWARD INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. CURRENTLY...THE FINAL PIECE OF THE COMPLEX
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BOTTOMING OUT OVER UTAH. IT APPEARS THAT
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH LITTLE
CAPPING AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SCATTERED THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. THEN A FRONTAL BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS...AND THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH IN THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. NOT CERTAIN HOW THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE
BAND WILL EVOLVE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BREAK UP SOME AND BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTH AND EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK..WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND TO
OUR WEST OVER ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI.

WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TODAY...AND MENTION SEVERE
STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL TAPER POPS THIS EVENING FROM
CATEGORICAL IN THE SOUTHEAST TO CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN
TAPER THEM BACK FURTHER OVERNIGHT...AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
THE 12Z NAM LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WITH QPF AND FRONTAL TIMING...SO
FOLLOWED IT FAIRLY CLOSELY. THAT MEANS KEEPING A SMALL POP IN
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE MET MOS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND STAYED NEAR THE TIGHT CONSENSUS FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WARMER MET LOOKED BEST FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY.

FEW CHANGES MADE BEYOND MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS SUPPORTS THE EXISTING
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO THERE WAS NO NEED TO
MESS WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-
     GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
     MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE
     GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-
     SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE
     IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
     SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

DRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
440 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-241000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
440 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
QUAD STATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SPRAWLING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP SOME AND LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE A LINE OF
STORMS FORMS ON A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH
ISOLATED CELLS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ISOLATED STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY
THREAT ONCE THE LINE FORMS NEAR THE FRONT.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
QUAD STATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.

DRS