Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
348 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE FA...WITH CONVECTION SEEN OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTION BEING SUPPORTED BY DECENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND LOW / MID TROP STRONG WIND FIELDS. THE MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT GRADUALLY SHIFTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON. SO TENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

ENERGETIC SW FLOW TO PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE MODELS
ADVERTISING SEVERE WX AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...MAINLY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH...AS MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF DEEP
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO AFFECT AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SEVERE POTENTIAL THERE AS WELL. THE WIND FIELDS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
DECENT. SUNDAY NIGHT MAY BE OF GREATER CONCERN...AS THE WIND FIELDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. THUS...THE LARGE DAY 2
MODERATE RISK AREA.

MODELS FINALLY SHIFT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EAST
1/2 OF THE FA MONDAY...BUT TAPER OFF POPS ACROSS THE WEST.

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN THE
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET NUMBERS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-
     GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
     MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE
     GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-
     SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE
     IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
     SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
717 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-111100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
717 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE LATE
TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...OR GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A DU QUOIN ILLINOIS TO
CADIZ KENTUCKY LINE.

A WARM FRONT WILL LEFT NORTH INTO THIS THREAT AREA LATER
TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE NEEDED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
THIS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE BOTH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MORE FLOODING ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. SPOTTERS
ACROSS THE QUAD STATE SHOULD BE READY FOR ACTIVATION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
255 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 AM     HAIL             MARION                  37.73N 88.94W
03/11/2006  M1.00 INCH       WILLIAMSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0251 AM     HAIL             1 N MARION              37.75N 88.94W
03/11/2006  M1.25 INCH       WILLIAMSON         IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MIKEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
327 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 AM     HAIL             CARRIER MILLS           37.69N 88.63W
03/11/2006  M0.75 INCH       SALINE             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MIKEN