Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL FLOW ALREADY TURNING SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...WITH RUC INDICATING 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT 850 MB BY 06Z. AIR
MASS ALONG THE GULF COAST IS PLENTY JUICY...MORE SO THAN IT WAS
BEFORE THE PAST FEW SEVERE OUTBREAKS. THE GULF WILL REMAIN WIDE OPEN
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOS DEW POINT GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREES TOO LOW. EXPECT MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE CURRENTLY /AT 20Z/ 80 DEGREES AS
CLOSE AS GREENWOOD MS AND PINE BLUFF AR.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION WILL BE
THE PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. THE AIR MASS WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE DRY AND STABLE
THIS EVENING...SO POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN THE
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY...OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WILL BE MADE. LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY TONIGHT...PRIOR TO THICKENING CLOUDINESS AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS.

LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
60 KNOTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...PER 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AT OR ABOVE 60 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE
LACK OF A WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL IS RATHER HIGH. WILL UPDATE THE ESFPAH PRODUCT
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

ON SUNDAY...CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT. GFS BRINGS IT AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KY AND
SE MISSOURI BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ETA STALLS IT CLOSE TO THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI. IN
EITHER CASE...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL LESSEN ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS.

A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
AGAIN STRENGTHEN TO 50 PLUS KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST ONE
OR MORE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION...MAINLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
SIGNIFICANT 500 MB SHORTWAVE AND COLD POOL...WITH A 500 MB JET
STREAK OF 70 PLUS KNOTS.

BEYOND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR WILL DOMINATE MOST OF
THE WEEK. A MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE LOWER/MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND MID WEEK. 12Z
GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AND THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WILL REFRAIN
FROM INTRODUCING POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
717 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-111100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
717 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE LATE
TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...OR GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A DU QUOIN ILLINOIS TO
CADIZ KENTUCKY LINE.

A WARM FRONT WILL LEFT NORTH INTO THIS THREAT AREA LATER
TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE NEEDED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
THIS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE BOTH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MORE FLOODING ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. SPOTTERS
ACROSS THE QUAD STATE SHOULD BE READY FOR ACTIVATION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.