Severe Thunderstorm Warning 330, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
100 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW SWIRLING ACROSS IA ON SE TRACK INTO NRN
IL...W/ISOLD LTG STRIKES JUST STARTING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW.
SURFACE PLOT AND VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NRN IL SOUTH AND WEST INTO CNTL MO...BUT BOTH WATER VAPOR AND
VISIBLE SHOW DRY AIR WEDGE INTO LOWER OH VALLEY. AS FRONT
APPROACHES...ANTICIPATE LINE DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST TO
BUILD BACK SOUTH AND WEST INTO PAH FA...HOW MUCH IS THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE. LATEST SWODY1 RETAINS MDT RISK SVR MAINLY NRN/ERN
PTNS FA CLOSER TO UPPER WINDS/DYNAMICAL ENERGY. HIGH INSTABILITY
ENVIRO IN PLACE W/SUFFICIENT FUEL/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT FRONT
SHOULD ACTIVATE LINEAR STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING. WL KEEP CLOSE
WATCH AND ANTICIPATE THE SAME TO BE POSTED THIS PM/EVENING.

12Z MODELS PUSH FRONT THRU FA TONIGHT. NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE/THOROUGH WITH FROPA WHILE GFS TENDS TO HANG IT UP ALONG
OUR SRN BORDER...WHICH IS IN LINE W/THEIR RUN-RUN TRENDS. HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP PERSISTENCE STRATEGY FORECAST OF LOW POP ALONG STALLING
BOUNDARY ESP SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN CLEAR OUT FRI AM AND RETURN AGAIN
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS BOUNDARY LIFTS WARM/WASHES OUT. THUS WE NEVER
REALLY GET A GOOD COOL OFF AND QUICKLY RETURN TO SUMMER LIKE FLOW
REGIME AND THUS SUMMER LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY. THE RESULTANT FORECAST WL
BE A NEAR DAILY DIURNAL POP AT LEAST...WITH A CONTINUING DAILY TAD
HIGHER POP BY MID WEEK NEXT AS A FRONT SAGS AND DAMPENS THE RIDGE.

WE HEDGED ON OR ABOVE HIGH SIDE OF MOS THRU THE PACKAGE IN
ACCORDANCE W/PERSISTENCE STRATEGY AS IT BLENDED COLLABORATIVELY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1000 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-261000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1000 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM BELLMONT...TO CARMI...TO HARRISBURG...TO METROPOLIS
ILLINOIS...AND GRAND RIVERS TO FORT CAMPBELL KENTUCKY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FOUR STATE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECASTED TO BE VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MAYFIELD TO CROFTON KENTUCKY. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE
AREA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH CHANCES MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS ON FRIDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
711 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     HAIL             3 NW WAPPAPELLO         36.97N 90.31W
05/25/2006  E0.75 INCH       WAYNE              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
713 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             DAYLIGHT                38.09N 87.49W
05/25/2006  E1.75 INCH       VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITTY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
725 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             2 W ADVANCE             37.10N 89.95W
05/25/2006  E0.88 INCH       STODDARD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

0722 PM     HAIL             1 S PUXICO              36.94N 90.16W
05/25/2006  E0.75 INCH       STODDARD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
727 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     HAIL             FOLSOMVILLE             38.13N 87.16W
05/25/2006  E1.00 INCH       WARRICK            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
729 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             VANDUSER                36.99N 89.69W
05/25/2006  E1.00 INCH       SCOTT              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITTY