Severe Thunderstorm Warning 274, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IA/IL INTO MO MOVING THIS WAY...HAS
CONVECTION ON ITS LEAD EDGE THREATENING PAH FA. RISING PM CAPES ESP
IN SEMO VCNTY HELPING STORMS DEVELOP ON/AHEAD OF TAIL END OF FRONT
AS WELL. NEW SVR TSM WATCH 282 JUST ISSUED FOR SEMO/SIL/SWKY TIL 01Z
COVERS MAINLY (DIURNAL) HAIL THREAT GIVEN WEAK WIND FIELDS.

FRONT IS DRAGGED ACROSS ENTIRE FA TONIGHT BY MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY. ANTICIPATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO
DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL AID...HOWEVER...STILL GOOD ENOUGH
ENVIRO GIVEN MOISTURE IN PLACE AND FRONT/WEAK UPPER SUPPORT TO
WARRANT POPS RANGING FROM LKLY (NORTH) TO CHC CAT (SOUTHEAST).
TOMORROW THIS WL FLIP WITH BOUNDARY STALLING IN SRN/ERN PTNS
FA...AND ANOTHER WAVE PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS AND
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ESP LATE THU-THU NIGHT...AGAIN OUTLOOKED
SLGT RISK SVR.

GFS SEEMED TO INITIALIZE BETTER ON CONVECTIVE ZONE WITH NAM
OVERDOING ITS PCPN BOTH ON 06Z AND 12Z RUNS. THEREFORE WE FOLLOWED
THE 12Z GFS FOR THE 1ST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT BEGINS TO SUFFER FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AFTER THAT...SO WE TREND BACK TO NAM/NGM HANDLE
ON 2ND WAVE IE THU-THU NIGHT-FRI. OUR FORECAST BIAS IS REFLECTED
RELATIVE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE MOS POPS NOS AS WELL.

AFTER THAT THE FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED. WE RETAINED THE FRI NIGHT
POP BUT DOWNPLAYED GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IS WASHING OUT OF THE PICTURE
BY THEN. WE WENT DRY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
OUR NEXT CHC PCPN STILL SLATED TO COME IN LATE DAY 6 INTO DAY 7.
THIS WAS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE COLLABORATIVE CONSENSUS AS
WELL.

THE TEMP FORECAST WL DISPLAY A SIMILAR BIAS ALTHOUGH ODDLY THE MOS
DID NOT TRANSLATE THE MODEL EFFECTS OF HIGHER V LOWER POPS
ABSOLUTELY TO A TEMP BIAS. THE FWC HAS RETAINED ITS WARM BIAS SO
WEVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN ITS NOS. NEAR TERM WE LIKED GFS
MAV MOS...BUT AGAIN TRENDED TOWARD NAM MET MOS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.
THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF THE MOS WITH THE
COLLABORATIVE PICTURE AND PERSISTENCE STRATEGY FORECASTING ALSO
TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...SVR TSM WATCH 282 SWRN COUNTIES TIL 01Z.
MO...SVR TSM WATCH 282 ALL COUNTIES TIL 01Z.
IL...SVR TSM WATCH 282 ALL COUNTIES TIL 01Z.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
330 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-041000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
330 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM FOR
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND FAR SOUTHWEST
KENTUCKY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS HAIL...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR TORNADOS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR OR ALONG BOUNDARIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO A THREAT.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT BUT THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER DECREASES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...SINCE AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSE BORDER REGION.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAIL WITH AN
ISOLATED WIND OR TORNADIC THREAT AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY TOO...BUT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATED THIS EVENING MAY ALSO BE REQUESTED FOR
ACTIVATION THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
451 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             KEVIL                   37.08N 88.89W
05/03/2006  E1.75 INCH       BALLARD            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
452 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             DONIPHAN                36.62N 90.82W
05/03/2006  E1.00 INCH       RIPLEY             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL MOSTLY 3/4 INCH BUT SOME UPTO 1 INCH IN SIZE

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
453 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             KEVIL                   37.08N 88.89W
05/03/2006  E0.75 INCH       BALLARD            KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
455 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     HAIL             5 W NEW COLUMBIA        37.31N 88.87W
05/03/2006  E1.00 INCH       MASSAC             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
503 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     HAIL             2 E MURRAY              36.61N 88.28W
05/03/2006  E1.00 INCH       CALLOWAY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL