Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Nashville, TN

000 
WWUS54 KOHX 022009
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
309 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

TNC021-022015-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-060402T2015Z/
CHEATHAM TN-
309 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT 
FOR CHEATHAM COUNTY...

AT 304 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF ASHLAND
CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3626 8715 3609 8715 3617 8700 3636 8695

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
150 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE POPS SEEM ABNORMALLY LOW (20-30%) GIVEN
THE APPROACH OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEM TO ARGUE BOTH FOR AND AGAINST. A
LARGE PORTION OF THE COLUMN ABOVE 750MB DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING FROM 1.28 INCHES TO 0.94 INCHES IN 6
HOURS. IF THIS HAPPENS...IT WOULD LIKELY SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WOULD
BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO TSTM DOWNBURST WINDS FOR THE TSTMS THAT DO
MANAGE TO FORM. ALSO...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP LIFTED INDICES
AT -4 OR LESS ALL NIGHT WITH TOTAL TOTALS NEAR OR ABOVE 50.

I GUESS THE UPSHOT OF THIS DATA IS THAT I WILL TAKE THE PATH OF
LEAST REGRET AND GO SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE POPS AND WILL ALSO MENTION
THE POSSIBILITY OF SVR STORMS FOR THE EVENING HOURS...GIVEN THAT SELS
HAS ALL OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS.

WILL HANG ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TOMORROW MORNING
UNTIL THE SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN AND SHUT OFF ANY CHANCE OF
RAIN. THE 1000-850 LAYER TEMPS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT WONT
GET INTO NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL 7 AM TOMORROW MORNING AND
PROGRESS RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE MORNING.

SFC RIDGE AFFECTS THE AREA FROM MON NGT THROUGH TUE NGT AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS ON WED AND GENERATES A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR LATE WED NGT AND ON THU AS THE ASSOCD WRM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW PUSHES
EWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
SAT AM. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE    57  66  37  63 /  50  20   5   0
CLARKSVILLE  56  62  35  60 /  50  20   5   0
CROSSVILLE   56  64  35  58 /  60  30  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

JLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-031030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...AND BRING A SQUALL LINE
WITH IT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK...ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1005 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

TNZ079-021530-
GRUNDY-
1005 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM HEADING FOR ALTAMONT AND BEERSHEEBA
SPRINGS...

AT 1002 AM...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
NORTHWESTERN GRUNDY COUNTY. THIS STORM IS MOVING EAST AT
AROUND 45 MPH AND WILL REACH AREAS JUST NORTH OF ALTAMONT
AROUND 1010 AM...AND THEN BEERSHEEBA SPRINGS AROUND 1015 AM.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN
BE EXPECTED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
224 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

TNZ026-027-059-022010-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILLIAMSON-
224 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HEADING FOR WESTERN WILLIAMSON...
SOUTHERN CHEATHAM AND INTO DAVIDSON COUNTY...

AT 221 PM...RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CHEATHAM...WESTERN WILLIAMSON AND THEN
INTO DAVIDSON COUNTY. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. IN ADDITION...SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
251 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

TNZ056-022020-
PERRY-
251 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY...

AT 250 PM...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH. IN ADDITION...SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE STORM
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LINDEN BY 3 PM.

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