Severe Thunderstorm Warning 384, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
332 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER SD WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S.. THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SOME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD WITH THE AXIS NOT CROSSING THE MID STATE UNTIL SUN NT.

PRIOR TO SUN NT...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. THE MAIN COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL WAY BACK ACROSS IA AND MO AND IS NEARLY
STATIONARY AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT IS PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...SUBSTANTIAL DYNAMICS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY
POPS...IS NOT IN THE EQUATION. THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE POPS MAINLY
IN THE 40-50 POP RANGE FOR TONIGHT AND SAT AS WELL.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD...THE COLD FRONT WILL GAIN SOME
EASTWARD MOMENTUM AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID STATE LATE SAT NT.
SO...WILL INCLUDE POPS IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR SAT
NT. GIVEN THE EXACT TIMING UNCERTAINTY...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE POPS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...STRONG FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL COINCIDE WITH A NEARLY 50KT LLJ. THUS...SVR TSTMS
COULD OCCUR SAT NT ACROSS THE AREA. OF AN EVEN GREATER
LIKLIHOOD...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SAT NT AS WELL.

IN THE EXT FCST...DRIER AIR AND SEASONAL TEMPS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE FROPA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOL TSTMS TO MIDDLE TN THU NT AND FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE    71  85  67  75 /  50  50  80  50
CLARKSVILLE  73  83  63  72 /  60  60  80  40
CROSSVILLE   67  79  65  71 /  50  50  60  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-231030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
65. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ALTHOUGH LATE SEPTEMBER IS NOT CONSIDERED A PEAK PERIOD FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...YOU SHOULD REMEMBER THAT
TORNADOES HAVE OCCURRED DURING EVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR. SO...
KEEP INFORMED ABOUT THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. LISTEN FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS THAT
MIGHT BE ISSUED...AND BE READY TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER IF A SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING IS ISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE REQUIRED AT ANY POINT DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON SUNDAY.

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
730 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

TNZ005-230115-
STEWART-
730 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

A LARGE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS PRESENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 30 MILES
WEST OF STEWARD COUNTY...AND IS MOVING EAST AROUND 35 MPH.
THIS STORM IS MOVING ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ALONG
THE KENTUCKY...TENNESSEE BORDER. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THIS
STORM WILL ENTER WESTERN STEWART COUNTY BY 815 PM. IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE...THE STORM WILL BE WEAKER ONCE IT GETS TO STEWART
COUNTY...BUT STILL COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

IF YOU LIVE IN STEWART COUNTY...LISTEN TO LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
BY WAY OF NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION.

THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED SEVERE WEATHER IN PARTS OF WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND EASTERN ARKANSAS. SEEK SHELTER WHEN WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

BOYD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
755 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

TNZ005-022-023-230115-
BENTON-HOUSTON-STEWART-
755 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WARNING FOR CALLOWAY COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY. CALLOWAY
COUNTY IS ADJACENT TO STEWART COUNTY.

AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN NASHVILLE WE ARE
MONITORING THIS STORM CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR
STEWART COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HALF HOUR.

NOW IS THE TIME TO DECIDE WHERE YOU AND YOUR FAMILY WILL GO...
IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENT. IF YOU
DONT HAVE A BASEMENT...GO TO AN INTERIOR CLOSET...IN THE CENTER OF
THE HOUSE.

BOYD