Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
342 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS WERE VERY WARM OVERNIGHT ACROSS MID TN.
TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS...EVEN LOW 80S AT
BNA GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAD ALSO DELIVERED JUICY DEW POINTS. THESE
CONDITIONS NOTED AROUND THE REGION WERE CORRELATED WITH AN
UNUSUALLY LARGE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. MOST OF THE SEVERE ACTION
HAS BEEN LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT...BUT OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO A BATCH OF STORMS HAD STARTED TO ACCELERATE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THESE STORMS FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND A LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING.
WE WILL FOLLOW FASTER GFS BASED ON CONSISTENCY AND NATIONAL
DISCUSSION PREFERENCES. GFS SHOWS AREA UNDER WARM SECTOR
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. WE WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THESE AREAS WILL BE MOST PRIMED FROM THIS
MORNINGS RAIN...AND MODELS SHOW GREATEST QPF THERE LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. REST OF MID STATE WILL HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
MAJOR ISSUE. DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT...BUT WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BRING GOOD SEVERE POTENTIAL. ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH CELLS AHEAD OF MAIN
SQUALL LINE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE TO MORE OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN
CONCERN. ALONG WITH GREATEST FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADO
RISK.

ON SUNDAY...SHOWERS/STORMS AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST
OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW. TAILING
UPPER TROUGH COULD KEEP CLOUDINESS AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE SO WILL
KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY AND
PLEASANT THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN NEXT SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE    86  67  75  54 /  50 100  50  10
CLARKSVILLE  84  64  72  51 /  60 100  40  10
CROSSVILLE   81  66  71  51 /  50  90  70  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BENTON...CHEATHAM...DICKSON...HOUSTON...HUMPHREYS...MONTGOMERY...
ROBERTSON...AND STEWART.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
532 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-241030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
532 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH AND WEST COUNTIES OF THE MID STATE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO MID TENNESSEE. THERE IS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I 65.
IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FOR THE REST OF THE MID
STATE...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE COMMON...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I 65. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE REQUIRED AT ANY POINT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
443 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 AM     TORNADO          10 SE CLARKSVILLE       36.46N 87.22W
09/23/2006                   MONTGOMERY         TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 41A. PUBLIC
            REPORTED TORNADO TOUCHDOWN.

0430 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENBRIER              36.42N 86.80W
09/23/2006                   ROBERTSON          TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN

&&

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