Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Nashville, TN

000 
WWUS54 KOHX 200440
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1140 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006

TNC027-111-200500-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0196.000000T0000Z-060520T0500Z/
CLAY TN-MACON TN-
1140 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MACON AND CLAY COUNTIES...

AT 1139 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
 THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RED BOILING SPRINGS...OR ABOUT 9 MILES
EAST OF LAFAYETTE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CELINA BY MIDNIGHT CDT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT 
SATURDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF TENNESSEE.

LAT...LON 3662 8558 3658 8540 3651 8542 3647 8548
      3643 8550 3648 8557 3652 8570 3653 8578
      3646 8582 3653 8609 3663 8605

$$

13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
856 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE MID STATE HOWEVER
SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID STATE.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS TO START DEVELOPING TO OUR
NORTHWEST ALONG AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER EASTERN MISSOURI.  THIS LOW WILL TRACK RAPIDLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE OVER THE MID STATE TONIGHT AND EAST OF THE MID
STATE BY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE TIMING WORDING AND
DECREASE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EXPECT SURFACE COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY UP NEAR STL AND IND, TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY. CHANNEL OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM ILLINOIS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SHOULD
MIGRATE EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WILL TREND FORECAST OF SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT CLOSER TO NGM, AND
MOVE IT ONLY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOMORROW, WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHERLY ONLY IN OUR MOST EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY AWAIT A BIGGER PUSH BY A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AREA,
WHICH SPREADS INTO THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY, BEFORE ADVANCING ALL THE
WAY OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS, WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING EACH PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...EXPECT RAIN CHANCE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS FRONT FINALLY PUSHES ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
GOES QUASI- STATIONARY NEAR OUT SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, AND DRIER AIR
SPREADS INTO MOST AREAS FROM THE NORTH. 1000-500MB MEAN RH REMAINS
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN AREAS TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL
POP RUNNING THERE ON MONDAY. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY. IF THINGS PAN OUT ACCORDING TO THE GFS, LOOKS LIKE WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A DRY PERIOD AREA-WIDE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK, AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE    59  79  62  78 /  60  40  40  40
CLARKSVILLE  58  78  61  77 /  60  40  40  40
CROSSVILLE   55  74  58  73 /  70  40  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1104 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-192230-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
1104 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...FROM THE NASHVILLE AREA
WESTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL POSSIBLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSTATE DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TWO
THIRDS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AT SOME
POINT TODAY...TONIGHT...OR OVER THE WEEKEND.

19