Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
856 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE MID STATE HOWEVER
SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID STATE.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS TO START DEVELOPING TO OUR
NORTHWEST ALONG AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER EASTERN MISSOURI.  THIS LOW WILL TRACK RAPIDLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE OVER THE MID STATE TONIGHT AND EAST OF THE MID
STATE BY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE TIMING WORDING AND
DECREASE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EXPECT SURFACE COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY UP NEAR STL AND IND, TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY. CHANNEL OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM ILLINOIS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SHOULD
MIGRATE EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WILL TREND FORECAST OF SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT CLOSER TO NGM, AND
MOVE IT ONLY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOMORROW, WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHERLY ONLY IN OUR MOST EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY AWAIT A BIGGER PUSH BY A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AREA,
WHICH SPREADS INTO THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY, BEFORE ADVANCING ALL THE
WAY OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS, WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING EACH PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...EXPECT RAIN CHANCE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS FRONT FINALLY PUSHES ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
GOES QUASI- STATIONARY NEAR OUT SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, AND DRIER AIR
SPREADS INTO MOST AREAS FROM THE NORTH. 1000-500MB MEAN RH REMAINS
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN AREAS TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL
POP RUNNING THERE ON MONDAY. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY. IF THINGS PAN OUT ACCORDING TO THE GFS, LOOKS LIKE WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A DRY PERIOD AREA-WIDE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK, AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE    59  79  62  78 /  60  40  40  40
CLARKSVILLE  58  78  61  77 /  60  40  40  40
CROSSVILLE   55  74  58  73 /  70  40  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1104 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-192230-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
1104 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...FROM THE NASHVILLE AREA
WESTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL POSSIBLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSTATE DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TWO
THIRDS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AT SOME
POINT TODAY...TONIGHT...OR OVER THE WEEKEND.

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