Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
334 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE MAP AT 20Z SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE LOW THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WHICH IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ALL THE STORMS WERE
SEEING THIS AFTERNOON.

RUC MODEL SOUNDING VALID AT 20Z FOR NASHVILLE SHOWS A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -8.7, POSITIVE ENERGY
OF 3300 J/KG, AND A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRY LAYER, ALTHOUGH THE
K-INDEX IS A LITTLE LOW AT 21. A WARM NOSE AT 750 MB MAY BE ONLY
THING PREVENTING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...ATMOSPHERIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE MID STATE TOMORROW MORNING, THEN STALLING OUT,
LEAVING US MOIST AND UNSTABLE UNTIL A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON FRIDAY, BRINGING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE
FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER.

AFTERWARD, SEVERAL WAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE MID STATE INTO
THE WEEKEND, WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE STILL-PRESENT MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS, WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, WHEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE
REGION, AND LEAVE US WITH LITTLE, IF ANY, CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

OVERALL, ITS A MESSY FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE    63  78  59  75 /  30  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE  62  77  57  75 /  40  50  50  50
CROSSVILLE   57  76  55  70 /  20  50  40  50
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
UNTIL 9 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BENTON...CHEATHAM...DAVIDSON...DICKSON...GILES...
HICKMAN...HOUSTON...HUMPHREYS...LAWRENCE...LEWIS...MARSHALL...
MAURY...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...ROBERTSON...STEWART...WAYNE...AND
WILLIAMSON.
&&

ROSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
920 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
920 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE MID STATE.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES INTERACTS WITH A LINGERING
FRONT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

BOYD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
302 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

TNZ005>007-022>027-056>061-093>095-032030-
BENTON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-DICKSON-GILES-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-ROBERTSON-STEWART-
WAYNE-WILLIAMSON-
302 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

...STRONG STORMS IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

AT 3 PM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FROM...SUMMERTOWN...ETHRIDGE INTO GILES COUNTY ALONG
HIGHWAY 166 AND INTO THE PULASKI AREA. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN PULSING
DURING THE LAST HALF HOUR. EXPECT WINDS TO 45 MPH...PEA TO MARBLE
SIZE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION CAN OCCUR AT ANY
TIME WITH THESE TYPE OF STORMS...AND LATER WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

BOYD