Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
322 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

.SHORT TERM...EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS, ALL THE EARLIER
PRECIPITATION HAS EITHER DISSIPATED OR LEFT THE MID STATE.
TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE 70S, OR HEADED THERE, WITH
SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE MAP AT 20Z DOES SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT RUNNING
THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF TENNESSEE.
ATMOSPHERIC MODELS SHOW THE SAME BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT, THEN COMING BACK AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT AND CARRIES ACROSS MISSOURI TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING MIDDLE
TENNESSEE UNDER A MARITIME TROPICAL INFLUENCE, AND DRAGGING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE MID STATE BY 12Z THURSDAY.

OF NOTE, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES PAINT MIDDLE TENNESSEE
INSIDE THEIR DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA (THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT).

.LONG TERM...THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WONT PROVIDE A CLEAN
FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT WILL INSTEAD LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS
UNTIL A STRONG GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE CENTER EVOLVES AND FINALLY
BRINGS THE 500 MB LONGWAVE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AT LEAST TWO
DAYS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE    57  81  61  78 /  30  30  30  40
CLARKSVILLE  55  79  62  77 /  20  30  40  40
CROSSVILLE   52  77  57  75 /  30  10  30  40
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

ROSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-031030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
500 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BRINGING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES INTERACTS WITH A LINGERING
FRONT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS
ALSO POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

13

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