Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Missoula, MT
NWS Missoula, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 10, 2006, 2:53 PM MDT for Flathead County, Montana. It was in force for 36 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 10, 2006, 2:53 PM MDT (20:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 10, 2006, 3:29 PM MDT
- In force
- 36 min
- Issued by
- NWS Missoula, MT
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Flathead County, MT
The radar
The Missoula radar (KMSX), 128 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 3:03 PM MDT | HAIL 1 | 5 N Bigfork, MT | BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 10 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Spokane, WA (KOTX), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 185 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 4 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -404 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2700 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 71 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 101 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS55 KMSO 102053 SVRMSO MTC029-102200- /O.NEW.KMSO.SV.W.0053.060710T2053Z-060710T2200Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT 253 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2006 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL FLATHEAD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MONTANA... * UNTIL 400 PM MDT. * AT 248 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BIGFORK...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KALISPELL...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... BIGFORK AROUND 255 PM MDT. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...GO INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL PROTECTED AREA. LAT...LON 4815 11442 4796 11415 4823 11340 4849 11377 $$ GP
2 follow-up statements
000 WWUS55 KMSO 102118 SVSMSO SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT 318 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2006 MTC029-102200- /O.CON.KMSO.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-060710T2200Z/ FLATHEAD MT- 318 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2006 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM MDT FOR CENTRAL FLATHEAD COUNTY... * AT 312 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF CRESTON...OR ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF EVERGREEN...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER 5 MILES NORTH OF BIGFORK REPORTED ONE INCH HAIL WITH THIS STORM. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... ESSEX AND NYACK AROUND 340 PM MDT... PINNACLE AROUND 345 PM MDT. LAT...LON 4815 11442 4796 11415 4823 11340 4849 11377 $$ GP
000 WWUS55 KMSO 102129 SVSMSO SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT 326 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2006 MTC029-102136- /O.CAN.KMSO.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-060710T2200Z/ FLATHEAD MT- 326 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2006 ...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL FLATHEAD COUNTY IS CANCELLED... THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN CENTRAL FLATHEAD COUNTY HAS WEAKENED. ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN FLATHEAD COUNTY. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HALF INCH HAIL OVER THE NEXT HOUR. LAT...LON 4815 11442 4796 11415 4823 11340 4849 11377 $$ GP
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Missoula, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 10, 9:41 AM MDT, 5 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 9:41 AM MDT, 5 hours 12 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT 941 AM MDT MON JUL 10 2006 .UPDATE...SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE DIFFERENCES IN SHOWER COVERAGE BETWEEN THE MISSOULA AND BITTERROOT VALLEYS GIVEN LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HEADED FOR BOTH VALLEYS. ALSO INCREASED WINDS IN THE MISSOULA VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MODERATE WINDS ALOFT AND THE GOOD MIX-DOWN POTENTIAL. WIND THE MAIN STORY OF THE DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA. CONTEMPLATING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FLATHEAD LAKE. APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL EVENT BUT GIVEN THIS IS PEAK SEASON AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF MORNING SUNSHINE INCREASING THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL MORE THAN LIKELY PULL THE TRIGGER LATER THIS MORNING. && .AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS MORNING...AFFECTING TERMINALS KMSO...KGPI AND BTM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LOCALLY IN LEMHI COUNTY IDAHO BY AFTERNOON...AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STORMS. PLEASE SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 334 AM MDT MON JUL 10 2006) SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE OVER OREGON APPROACHING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY FROM MISSOULA NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST MT INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN MT WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOST PREVALENT OVER THE EXTREME NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. SOUTHWEST MT WILL ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WHERE THE GREATEST HEATING WILL OCCUR. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED OVER NORTHWEST MT WITH THE PASSING TROUGH WITH BREEZING CONDITIONS FELT THROUGHOUT WESTERN MT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH MAY OCCUR OVER FLATHEAD LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER IS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS THE MONDAY SYSTEM. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM MAINLY ALONG THE CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO COOL TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS WITH LOCAL BREEZY CONDITIONS FELT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO PASS THROUGH NORTHWESTERN MONTANA BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WHERE THE AIR STABILIZES WHILE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WESTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL IDAHO WILL BE UNDER A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT...HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE ASHORE. GRADUALLY OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REFORM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS THE SO CALLED MONSOON HIGH WHICH ENHANCES MOISTURE FLOW OUT OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. I HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND IN ANTICIPATION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SEEPING UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. ID...NONE. && UPDATE...CHURCH PREV DISCUSSION...FELSCH/DICKERSON AVIATION...CHURCH
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 10, 12:52 PM MDT, 2 hours 1 minute before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT 1252 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2006 MTZ003-110200- FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS- 1252 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2006 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MONTANA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FLATHEAD LAKE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE GTFNPWMSO FOR FURTHER DETAILS. BOATERS ON AREA LAKES SHOULD BE ALERT TO ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HAZARDS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. MTZ001-002-007-043-110200- KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-WEST GLACIER REGION- BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION- 1252 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2006 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MONTANA AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COOL FRONT. BOATERS ON AREA LAKES SHOULD BE ALERT TO ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Missoula, MT issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 11:57 AM MDT | Lake Wind Advisory | MSO | Flathead, Lake, Sanders | 6 hr |
| Jul 10, 4:21 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MSO | Lincoln | 45 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2006Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.