Lake Wind Advisory 3, NWS Missoula, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
941 AM MDT MON JUL 10 2006

.UPDATE...SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE DIFFERENCES IN SHOWER
COVERAGE BETWEEN THE MISSOULA AND BITTERROOT VALLEYS GIVEN LARGE
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HEADED FOR BOTH VALLEYS. ALSO INCREASED WINDS IN
THE MISSOULA VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MODERATE
WINDS ALOFT AND THE GOOD MIX-DOWN POTENTIAL. WIND THE MAIN STORY
OF THE DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA. CONTEMPLATING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
FLATHEAD LAKE. APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL EVENT BUT GIVEN THIS IS
PEAK SEASON AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF MORNING SUNSHINE INCREASING THE
DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL MORE THAN LIKELY PULL THE TRIGGER
LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS MORNING...AFFECTING
TERMINALS KMSO...KGPI AND BTM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LOCALLY IN LEMHI COUNTY IDAHO
BY AFTERNOON...AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR
AVIATION WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE STORMS. PLEASE SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 334 AM MDT MON JUL 10 2006)

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO EARLY THIS
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE OVER
OREGON APPROACHING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY FROM MISSOULA NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
MOVE INLAND OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST MT INCREASING
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN MT WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOST PREVALENT
OVER THE EXTREME NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL BE ADVECTED
INTO THE AREA. SOUTHWEST MT WILL ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
WHERE THE GREATEST HEATING WILL OCCUR. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EXPERIENCED OVER NORTHWEST MT WITH THE PASSING TROUGH WITH
BREEZING CONDITIONS FELT THROUGHOUT WESTERN MT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO
30 MPH MAY OCCUR OVER FLATHEAD LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER IS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS THE MONDAY SYSTEM.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM MAINLY ALONG
THE CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT
EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO COOL TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS WITH LOCAL
BREEZY CONDITIONS FELT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO PASS THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN MONTANA BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH WHERE THE AIR STABILIZES WHILE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH
WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WESTERN
MONTANA AND CENTRAL IDAHO WILL BE UNDER A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT...HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE ASHORE. GRADUALLY OUR
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REFORM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS THE SO CALLED MONSOON HIGH WHICH ENHANCES MOISTURE
FLOW OUT OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. I HAVE
KEPT CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND IN ANTICIPATION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SEEPING UP FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CHURCH
PREV DISCUSSION...FELSCH/DICKERSON
AVIATION...CHURCH

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