Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
154 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS LOCATED FROM SRN IL
ACROSS CNTRL KY AND OUR SW VA COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY IS QUITE UNSTABLE...WITH SBCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8 C/KM. GOES SOUNDER LI ARE BETWEEN
-5 AND -8 IN THE NORTH. EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLATEAU/NORTHERN VALLEY AND SW VA NEAR THE FRONT. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. AS THE SURFACE LOW NOW OVER MO MOVES EAST ALONG
THE FRONT...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SPREAD TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
BY MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE FRONT...AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT...WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG WITH A MENTION OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE GFS PLACES THE FRONT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER
AT 18Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER FRONT
WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT AT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AT THAT TIME. PREFER
THE FASTER GFS BUT WILL STILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS IN THE
SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
REGION. PW DROP TO AROUND A HALF INCH ON TUESDAY. A DIGGING 500 MB
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH DROPS TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...BUT WITH THE AIR MASS SO DRY THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO GENERATE PRECIP. EXPECT ONLY SOME AFTERNOON CU/SC TO
DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...AND A LARGE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA.
INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY...GIVING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SOME
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH LITTLE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNAL AND WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN NEAR
NORMAL...RISING TO 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  69  88  63  87 /  90  50   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  84  61  84 /  90  30   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN  67  83  59  85 /  90  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  63  78  53  81 /  90  30   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DGS

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