Severe Thunderstorm Warning 252, NWS Morristown, TN

000 
WWUS54 KMRX 110709
SVSMRX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
309 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

TNC163-110730-
/O.CON.KMRX.SV.W.0252.000000T0000Z-060611T0730Z/
SULLIVAN TN-
308 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 AM EDT
FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY...

AT 304 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR SOUTH HOLSTON DAM...OR ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BRISTOL VA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE OVER...
  RURAL NORTHEASTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY THROUGH 330 AM EDT

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3658 8191 3655 8194 3644 8213 3644 8217
      3648 8225 3652 8246 3660 8243 3660 8199
      3661 8197 3660 8186

$$

000 
WWUS54 KMRX 110722
SVSMRX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

TNC163-110730-
/O.CAN.KMRX.SV.W.0252.000000T0000Z-060611T0730Z/
SULLIVAN TN-
320 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD EXITED THE WARNED AREA.
THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3658 8191 3655 8194 3644 8213 3644 8217
      3648 8225 3652 8246 3660 8243 3660 8199
      3661 8197 3660 8186

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
239 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND MONDAY)...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLOWLY SAG INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF
-7 TO -9. FAIRLY VIGOROUS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THERMO-
DYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR WET DOWNBURSTS WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
AND INVERTED-V SUB-CLOUD LAYER. ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT PENNY-QUARTER
SIZE HAIL GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. WILL ISSUE A SPS CONCERNING
THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY MONDAY...FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
CHANCE OF STORMS...MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NUMBER 1 (POSSIBLY TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO) WILL MOVE INTO FL AND
THE CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE WEEK...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE RIDGING. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWS AIRMASS BECOMING FAIRLY
DRY. I AM ALWAYS CONCERNED ABOUT NORTHWEST FLOWS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN
UNITED STATES WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MID-WEEK
ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. ALSO... SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED. WILL INCLUDE
MAINLY DIURNAL-TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION BY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             95  70  90  65 /  20  30  40  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  68  84  60 /  30  60  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  68  84  59 /  30  60  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  63  80  53 /  50  70  50  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

DH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
520 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-111000-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
520 AM EDT (420 AM CDT) SAT JUN 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF TENNESSEE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO BECOME VERY WARM AND
UNSTABLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  DUE TO THE
EXPECTED INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE.  THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS AREA SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AIRMASS ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE UNSTABLE ALLOWING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY...TONIGHT...AND
SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

DH