Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
332 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...CONVECTION NOW WANING OVER
AREA.  HAVE POPS FOR THIS EVENING HIGHER (20S AND 30S) WEST AND LOW
NORTHEAST CONSIDERING CURRENT TRENDS.  THINKING MAYBE ENOUGH
CONVECTION CAN GET GOING OVER MIDDLE TN TO ADVECT IN THIS EVENING IN
THE WEST.

LATER TONIGHT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN THE NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE SOUTH AND FAR EAST AROUND
DAYBREAK.  FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WILL PROBABLY BE PRETTY
QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH.  STILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN CASE THE
SHORT WAVE CANNOT MOTIVATE THE CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH OF
THE CWA.

STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS...A LITTLE LOWER HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY IN THE NORTH DUE TO HEAVIER CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRI NIGHT THROUGH THU)...UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY FRI
NIGHT...AND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.  THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  CAPPING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION...BUT FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHWEST ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SOUTH AND CENTRAL SUN WHERE MODELS DEPICT DEEPER MOISTURE.  WILL KEEP
CURRENT DRY MONDAY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR MON AS WELL LATER.  RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND GFS DEPICTS MORE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR TUE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THU...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE NIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  66  85  67  90 /  50  50  40  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  84  64  87 /  50  50  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN  67  84  63  88 /  50  40  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  61  78  59  85 /  60  40  30  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

GM/LDW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
530 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-251000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-
JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-
KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-
NORTHWEST MONROE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-
EAST POLK-LEE-WISE-SCOTT VA-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON VA-
530 AM EDT (430 AM CDT) THU MAY 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY.  INCREASING SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY WILL TRANSPORT WARM...
MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND FOCUS ALONG THE
WARM FRONT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL UP TO
PENNY SIZE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.  BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.
DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND COOL AIR ALOFT...SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
ENDING THE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MORE SUMMER-
LIKE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT A BETTER CHANCE EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
113 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     HAIL             6 ESE DUNLAP            35.34N 85.29W
05/25/2006  E0.25 INCH       SEQUATCHIE         TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA SIZED HAIL ON HIGHWAY 111 ON LEWIS CHAPEL MOUNTAIN.
            REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DISPATCH.

&&

FERRELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
235 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

TNZ099-251900-
HAMILTON-
235 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING HAMILTON COUNTY...

AT 230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHATTANOOGA....MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...MAY OCCUR WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT
DRIVE THROUGH WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. TURN AROUND DONT DROWN

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR EAST TENNESSEE.

TD

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