Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1015 AM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND WILL ACT A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION.  THE AIR MASS REMAINS A BIT UNSTABLE THIS MORNING AND
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  THE
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT AROUND NEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ALONG IT.  SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE.  ALL ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  63  82  60 /  30  40  40  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  79  60  78  57 /  30  30  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       78  59  77  56 /  30  30  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              75  53  74  51 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

MJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
440 AM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-211000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
440 AM EDT (340 AM CDT) SAT MAY 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
...A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
WARM...MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOPED.  DUE TO THE EXPECTED VERY UNSTABLE AIR-
MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER AROUND THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...SOME SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

DH