Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
900 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES. CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AS
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ANTICIPATE A
SERIES OF WEAK WAVES TRANSLATING THROUGH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD. TEMPS APPEAR
REASONABLE BASED ON TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

LCM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2006

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-201000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
315 PM EDT (215 PM CDT) FRI MAY 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
TONIGHT...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER AROUND THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
(MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS). WHILE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...SOME SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

DMG