Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 211858
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
157 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

ALC025-129-211915-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-060421T1915Z/
WASHINGTON AL-CLARKE AL-
157 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL CLARKE AND NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 153 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF ST STEPHENS...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CHATOM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ST STEPHENS BY 210 PM CDT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT 
FRIDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3154 8824 3147 8817 3155 8785 3177 8799

$$

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 211911
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
211 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

ALC025-129-211921-
/O.EXP.KMOB.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-060421T1915Z/
WASHINGTON AL-CLARKE AL-
211 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL CLARKE AND 
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 215 
PM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT 
FRIDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3154 8824 3147 8817 3155 8785 3177 8799

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1135 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

.UPDATE...CURRENTLY WATCHING STRONG TO SEVERE MCS MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MORNING KLIX SOUNDING INDICATED A CAP NEAR
800 MB THAT IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR AREA AT
THE PRESENT TIME. HOWEVER...LAST FEW IMAGES FROM THE KLIX WSR-88D
INDICATED ISOLATED  THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE ACROSS CENTRAL MS AND EAST LA. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES
ENHANCED CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE CLOUD STREETS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI ZONES AND THIS IS LIKELY WHERE WE WILL SEE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF
THE LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE CAPE VALUES IN THE HAIL GROWTH
REGION WILL ENHANCE HAIL GROWTH ALSO. THE MAIN LINE THIS EVENING
WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT IN BOWS AND LEWPS AS WELL.
LAPS CAPES AND SPC MESO PAGE ANALYSIS INDICATING CURRENT SBCAPES
RUNNING AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...W/ VALUES NEAR
2000 J/KG COMING ONSHORE IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. THESE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.
SPEAKING OF CLOUDS...INSTABILITY VALUES MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY
THE EXTENSIVE CIRRUS BLOWOFF AHEAD OF THE MCS. TIMING FOR THE MAIN
LINE STILL LOOKS TO BE AFTER ABOUT 6 PM THIS EVENING THEN MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SVR WW #232 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER WATCH FURTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT W/ SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES ALONG W/ ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUD COVER AND TO ADD
SEVERE WORDING. WILL MONITOR TEMPS AS THEY ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF
HOURLY GRIDS...HOWEVER INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BRING THEM IN
LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL MAKE NO ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS
POINT.

NOTE...THE KMOB WSR-88D HAS BEEN RETURNED TO SERVICE.

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

13/JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-221200-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
600 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY. WINDS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL CREATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREATS...MAINLY ACROSS THE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A STONE
COUNTY...MISSISSIPPI TO CRENSHAW COUNTY...ALABAMA LINE.

THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR RIP CURRENTS TO MODERATE. THE CHANCE WILL DECREASE SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN DOMINATES THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM WHICH WILL SPAWN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHTS
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA MOVES EAST...SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN BEING A CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
OVER THE AREA.

THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NEEDED AT TIMES LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.