High Surf Advisory 3, NWS Melbourne, FL

000 
WHUS42 KMLB 062001
CFWMLB

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
301 PM EST MON NOV 6 2006

FLZ047-054-059-064-141-147-071000-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-061106T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.CF.S.0001.061106T2001Z-061107T1000Z/
SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
301 PM EST MON NOV 6 2006

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY. 

...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT MINOR BEACH EROSION 
REMAINS POSSIBLE...

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A 
GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY 
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...BREAKERS OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL STILL AFFECT 
THE COASTLINE.

THE HIGH SURF...IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...AND 
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS...WILL PROMOTE BEACH EROSION DURING EACH HIGH 
TIDE CYCLE. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF MINOR TO MODERATE EROSION 
ALONG AREA BEACHES WITH RECENT HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THERE WILL ALSO 
REMAIN A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

THE NEXT HIGH TIDES AT SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL 
FLORIDA...

DAYTONA BEACH...826 PM AND 855AM.     
CAPE CANAVERAL...751 PM AND 834 AM. 
SEBASTIAN INLET...809 PM AND 852 AM.

$$

TES

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...TEMPS POPS ADDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 AM EST MON NOV 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLC TO OFF THE NE
U.S. WILL GRADUALLY PULL OFFSHORE BY EVENING. WINDY/BREEZY ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS RECENT DAYS AS
GRADIENT RELAXES JUST A BIT AS LOW LVL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER THIS AFTN
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LWR MS
VALLEY. 250 MB TROUGH DROPPING SSE TWD THE LWR MS VALLEY WILL
SHARPEN ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SE STATES. SOME LATE AFTN WAA IN THE 850-700
LYR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...SO WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND GO WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TODAY.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL AGAIN REMAIN LOW WITH ISOLATED ATLC SHOWERS
MOVING ONSHORE IN LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON RECENT BUOY OBS
AND OFFSHORE SEA HTS WILL HOIST HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTN
WITH ANOTHER ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE AROUND 8 AM THIS MORNING. WILL
SEE CONTINUED THREAT FOR BEACH EROSION AND MINOR DUNE EROSION IN
SPOTS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WITH ONSHORE FLOW HIGHS WILL BE
CLOSE TO YDAYS READINGS...AROUND 80 DEGS.

TONIGHT...TROUGH ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY PROGD TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT WITH SYSTEM CLOSING OFF AT H5. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO
THE SE AND STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM BUT LOOKS LIKE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS N FL THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING 80-90 KT UPR LVL JET. WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY ACROSS
CSTL SECTIONS WITH POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ATLC SHOWERS TO BRUSH THE
COAST. LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S UNDER M CLDY
SKIES.

TUE...POTENT SHORTWAVE DIGGING SWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
CONTINUES TREND OF CUTTING OFF FROM NORTHERN STREAM JUST NORTH OF
THE STATE. GLOBAL SOLNS NOW CENTERING ON A SOMEWHAT SLOWER EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM UPSTREAM FROM REGION TUE. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN
IN VEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS WITH
ISOLD THUNDER POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT LIFT APPEARS LACKING AND WL KEEP POPS LOWER
THAN GUID NOS ARE SUGGESTING. OTHERWISE A WARM AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

TUE NIGHT/WED...STRONG BAROCLINIC TREND TIMED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS COUPLED WITH APCHG AXIS OF 100KT
JET OVER THE EASTERN GULF. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS SUGGEST LINEAR
CONVECTION WOULD BE LIKELY WITH ANY SHOWER/THUNDER BAND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WED. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
UPWARD INTO LIKELY CATEGORY TUE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
THE UPR LOW WILL LAG BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE EVENT BY AT LEAST 12
HOURS SO SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
UNTIL DRY SLOT WRAPS EWD INTO THE AREA LATER WED. PROXIMITY OF
SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
TIL THE EVENING.

THU-SUN...LOW PRESS SLOW TO DEPART THE AREA AND GFS SHOWS SFC LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS THU MORNING DIPPING A LITTLE SWD IN RESPONSE TO
RE-CENTERING UNDERNEATH THE EWD MOVING AND MATURING UPR LOW. WEST TO
NW FLOW LOCALLY WILL RETAIN A DRY AND CONTINENTAL SOURCE TO END THE
WORKWEEK WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW MAY INCREASE CLOUDS
AND PROVIDE A SECONDARY COOL SURGE AROUND SAT...BUT NO MENTIONABLE
RAIN CHC IS INDICATED DUE TO OVERALL LAYER DRYNESS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS STILL AROUND 9 FT AT BUOY 41009 AND WILL BE
CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD WITH ONSHORE
WINDS DROPPING OFF TO 15-20 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH TUE. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW TUE
NIGHT WILL GREATLY REDUCE SEAS INTO WED. WINDS PICK UP LATER WED AND
SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WELL OFFSHORE. OFFSHORE FETCH WILL
KEEP SOMEWHAT SEAS WITHIN 20 NM FROM THE COAST THROUGH FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...EAST/SE FLOW WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHRA TO MOVE ONSHORE
AFFECTING MAINLY COASTAL ARPTS FROM KDAB-KSUA. WILL SEE LCL CIGS
AROUND AROUND 040 THIS MORNING AND SHOULD SEE HIGHER BASED CIGS
DEVELOP BTWN 060-080 THIS AFTN AS FLOW VEERS IN THE 850-700 MB LYR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  68  82  69 /  20  20  30  60
MCO  80  66  83  68 /  10  10  30  60
MLB  79  72  82  69 /  20  20  30  60
VRB  80  73  85  70 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH-JUPITER INLET 0-60 NM THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY COASTAL ZONES THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.

&&

SHORT TERM...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
907 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2006

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
061100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
907 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE ROUGH SURF CAN KNOCK YOU DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING
CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT. PEOPLE VISITING THE BEACHES SHOULD NOT ENTER
THE SURF.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SEAS TO 10 FEET.
HIGH SEAS AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL POSE A HAZARD TO SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS VENTURING OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH SEAS REMAINING
HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO MID WEEK BUT THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. A FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

WIMMER