Coastal Flood Statement 1, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EST MON NOV 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT/TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT MORE RELAXED THAN RECENT DAYS...THOUGH WILL STILL
SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO MORE EASTERLY TODAY AND
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS EAST TEXAS. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF IT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS ECFL
TODAY.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL WITH
SUSTAINED STRONG EASTERLY FLOW...CONTINUED LARGE NORTHEAST SWELL AND
ROUGH SEAS FROM LOCAL BUOY OBS. ANOTHER ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE
OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED THREAT
INTO THIS AFTN FOR BEACH EROSION IN PLACES.

WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO INCLUDE SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTN. HAVE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP
POPS FOR TUE ACROSS AREA AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED IN THE 305K-315K PRESSURE
SURFACE AND THIS WILL AID IN LIFT AND GENERAL CLOUDINESS PROMOTING
SHOWERY PCPN CHANCES AND ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS INCREASING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 9 STILL AROUND 9 FT WITH SUSTAINED EAST WINDS
AROUND 20 KTS AND GUSTY. SCA OVER ALL OF ECFL COASTAL WATERS
CONTINUES THROUGH LATE OVERNIGHT. WHILE WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. A
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AS ROUGH SURF
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...EAST FLOW TODAY WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL REMAIN 10-15
KTS AROUND COASTAL AREAS. ISOLD SHRA CHANCES AROUND THE COAST AND
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTN.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH-JUPITER INLET 0-60 NM THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY COASTAL ZONES THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.

&&

SEDLOCK/GLITTO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
456 AM EST MON NOV 6 2006

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
062100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
456 AM EST MON NOV 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST. A LONG FETCH
OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BRING
HIGH SURF TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH
AND DANGEROUS SURF WITH BREAKERS UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET AFFECTING THE
COASTLINE.

THE HIGH SURF...IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...AND
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS... WILL PROMOTE BEACH EROSION DURING EACH
HIGH TIDE CYCLE TODAY. THERE WERE REPORTS OF MINOR TO MODERATE
EROSION ALONG AREA BEACHES WITH THE HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 730 AM AND 830 AM MONDAY MORNING.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE TO LARGE OCEAN SWELLS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT AT THE BEACHES. THE HIGH
SURF CAN ALSO KNOCK YOU DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING
CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT. PEOPLE VISITING THE BEACHES TODAY SHOULD
NOT ENTER ROUGH SURF.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
EAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AND SEAS FROM 7 TO 9 FEET WILL MAKE BOATING
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT TODAY. MODERATE TO LARGE SWELLS
MAY ALSO MAKE NAVIGATION THROUGH INLETS MORE DIFFICULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AN EASTERLY SWELL WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE
BEACHES THROUGH MID WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON TUESDAY
AND MOVE EASTWARD BRINGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

VOLKMER