Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Milwaukee, WI

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 020046
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
746 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

WIC021-020145-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-060702T0145Z/
COLUMBIA WI-
746 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR COLUMBIA COUNTY...

AT 745 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF FRIESLAND 
TO 12 MILES WEST OF PORTAGE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  OKEE...HARMONY GROVE AND LAKE WISCONSIN BY 755 PM CDT
  PORTAGE BY 800 PM CDT
  FRIESLAND BY 805 PM CDT
  WYOCENA AND PARDEEVILLE BY 810 PM CDT

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE 
NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO 
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY 
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 4364 8965 4363 8975 4358 8973 4356 8960
      4330 8960 4348 8920 4363 8901

$$

BORGHOFF/REM

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 020113
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
813 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

WIC021-020145-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-060702T0145Z/
COLUMBIA WI-
813 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR COLUMBIA COUNTY...

AT 813 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF 
PARDEEVILLE TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE WISCONSIN...MOVING 
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PARDEEVILLE BY 825 PM CDT
  OKEE...HARMONY GROVE...WYOCENA AND LAKE WISCONSIN BY 830 PM CDT
  7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FRIESLAND BY 835 PM CDT

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE 
NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO 
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY 
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4364 8965 4363 8975 4358 8973 4356 8960
      4330 8960 4348 8920 4363 8901

$$

BORGHOFF/MBK

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 020137
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
837 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

WIC021-020145-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-060702T0145Z/
COLUMBIA WI-
837 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR COLUMBIA COUNTY...

AT 837 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF PARDEEVILLE...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF PORTAGE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4364 8962 4356 8960 4330 8960 4348 8920
      4363 8901

$$

BORGHOFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST EMPHASIS ON FIRST PERIOD THREAT OF CONVECTION
WITH RETURNING CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  BREAKS IN MID
LAYER CLOUDS ALLOWED BREEZY WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...CARRYING DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE...KEEPING SFC DEWPTS
SOMEWHAT IN CHECK. 18Z SOUNDING FROM KDVN HAS INCREDIBLE DRYING
BELOW 700KPA WITH A CIN OF OVER 400 J.  MODIFIED SOUNDING TO LATE
AFTN/EVE DEWPTS REVEALS CIN DROPPING TO 200 J.  BUFKIT RUC SOUNDING
FOR KMSN THIS EVENING SHOWS ELEVATED CIN DROPPING TO LESS THAN 50
JOULES AS ENHANCED FORCING SHIFTS THRU AROUND 03Z.  THINKING THAT
GFS OVERDOING QPF ACRS SRN WI OVERNIGHT...AS UPSTREAM DEWPTS LESS
THAN 10C.  TAIL END OF LOW LEVEL JET LINGERING OVER SERN WI THRU 06Z
WITH WEAKENING THETA-E RIDGE.  HENCE ENUF FORCING ASSOCD WITH
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX NOW IN SWRN MN AND LOWERING OF CAP TO GO
WITH SCT OR LOW END LKLY WORDING IN MY SOUTH. WL WAIT TO MAKE
DECISION AT LAST MINUTE.  WITH FREEZING LEVELS REMAINING QUITE HIGH
THINK MAIN SVR THREAT IF ANY WL BE STRONG WINDS. DOWNDRAFT CAPE
EXCEEDING 1000 J EXPCD THIS EVENING WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES.

BOTH GFS AND NAM-WRF IN AGREEMENT ON WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACRS SRN WI/NRN IL AREA ON SUN. FORCING WEAK AND EXPC
DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S STILL WL RESULT IN CAPE EXCEEDING 1000
J/KG IN MY SOUTHERN AREAS.  HENCE WORTH KEEPING SML POPS GOING
MAINLY SUN AFTN CLOSER TO THE LINGERING WEAK BOUNDARY.  LOW LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO INCREASE SUN NGT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SECONDARY
SHORT WAVE ASSOCD WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MON EVE...HENCE NEED TO
CONT CHC POPS SUN INTO MON.  LATEST GFS SHOWING SLIGHTLY MORE
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON TUE BUT WL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING POPS AT THIS POINT AND WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY.

FOR EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING TUE NGT...STATUS QUO IN EFFECT AS MOST
EXTENDED GUIDANCE HAS LONG WAVE TROFING ACRS GTLAKES FILLING AND
SUCCUMBING TO LARGE SCALE RIDGING BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ACRS NRN
CONUS.  GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AT BOTH 500 AND 700KPA IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR FIRST FEW DAYS OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MORE
VARIABILITY BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT ON PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE
DURING THE WEEK.  HENCE LARGE SCALE RIDGING SETS UP ON TUE AND
LINGERS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.  SOME CONCERN FOR INSTABILITY
SHOWERS TUE AND WED BUT GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW AIR MASS TO BE QUITE DRY
WITH NO CAPE.  RIDGING SUPPRESSES BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTHWARD SO DRY
FOR EXTENDED PD AT THIS TIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOWER SKY GRID
NUMBERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
109 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-020900-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
109 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-665-020900-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
109 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT INTO EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

GEHRING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
722 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             N BERLIN                43.97N 88.95W
07/01/2006  E0.25 INCH       GREEN LAKE         WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SCHAAR