Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
252 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON LINGERING CONVECTION THIS
MORNING...THEN ON RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.

RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A HUGE MCS OVER ALL OF THE CWA
AND STRETCHING WEST TO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
CURRENT MOVEMENT WOULD LINGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AFTER 12Z...IN LINE WITH GFS QPF PATTERN. ALL
MODELS KEEP SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF CWA TILL AROUND
18Z...WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. 65-70 DEW POINTS LINGER
ACROSS CWA TILL AROUND 18Z WITH 1500-2500 CAPES. A THETA-E RIDGE
ALSO LINGERS NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER. I WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW GFS
SOLUTION THIS MORNING AND QPF PATTERN...AND KEEP POPS IN FORECAST
THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.

FOR THIS WEEKEND...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES TRACKING ACROSS WISCONSIN THROUGH WEEKEND. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL LAPS RATES SHOULD BE FAIRLY STEEP WITH H500 TEMPERATURES
AROUND -14. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A POSSIBLE LF QUAD OF 90KT H300
JET. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH H700 MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH MID
AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CWA AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-200900-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A DELLS...LAKE
MILLS TO MONROE LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
AND COULD PRODUCE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...AND FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-665-200900-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN AND THE ADJOINING WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

REM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 N PORTAGE             43.62N 89.47W
07/20/2006  E60.00 MPH       COLUMBIA           WI   AMATEUR RADIO

0227 AM     TSTM WND GST     PARDEEVILLE             43.53N 89.30W
07/20/2006  E60.00 MPH       COLUMBIA           WI   AMATEUR RADIO

0234 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 WNW MIDDLETON         43.12N 89.58W
07/20/2006  E60.00 MPH       DANE               WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            THREE INCH LIMBS BROKEN OFF TREES.

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
304 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SSE MADISON             43.08N 89.39W
07/20/2006                   DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOP HALF OF A 6 INCH DIAMETER MAPLE TREE BROKEN OFF.

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
313 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     HAIL             4 W PARDEEVILLE         43.53N 89.38W
07/20/2006  M0.88 INCH       COLUMBIA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0240 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNE SUN PRAIRIE       43.24N 89.20W
07/20/2006  E60.00 MPH       DANE               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

BORGHOFF

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