Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Milwaukee, WI

July 19, 2006Dane County, Jefferson County, Wisconsin

NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 19, 2006, 9:20 PM CDT for Dane County, Jefferson County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 25 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2006, 9:20 PM CDT (02:20 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2006, 9:45 PM CDT
In force: 25 min
Issued by: NWS Milwaukee, WI
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Dane County, WI, Jefferson County, WI

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 2.3 hours before the alert went out and 179 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 599 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -178 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 838 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 238 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 282 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 19, 3:00 PM CDT, 6 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 3:00 PM CDT, 6 hours 20 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
TONIGHT.

SEVERE MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH MINNESOTA THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED
INTO MAINLY RAIN. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MORE SEVERE STORMS
FORMED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS MCS IN NORTHEAST IOWA...WHICH MOVED
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING IF MORE CONVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND
SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. WRF MODEL HAD A REASONABLE SPATIAL
DEPICTION OF THE MCS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH ITS TIMING WAS WAY TOO
SLOW IN MOVING IT EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE WRF
AND THE RUC BOTH SHOW NEW CONVECTION INITIATING IN NORTHERN IOWA
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
JET NOSE INTERSECTION. THE WRF THEN DEVELOPS ANOTHER MCS...AND
TAKES IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS BY
12Z THURSDAY...MISSING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

IN CONTRAST...THE GFS DEVELOPS THE CONVECTION MUCH FURTHER NORTH
IN MINNESOTA...TAKING IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS TIME. THE LATEST 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION WRF MODEL ALSO DEVELOPS
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN IOWA...BUT TAKES IT DUE EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY. PREFER THE WRF/HIGH RESOLUTION WRF
OVER THE GFS WITH THIS SCENARIO...AS THEY SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON SURFACE AND UPPER FEATURES...AND THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING.

HOWEVER...THE USUAL MODEL PROBLEMS WITH HANDLING CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO PRESENT SOME UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MCS DOES MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WOULD PROBABLY HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE. SO...WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY TO THE 60 TO 70
RANGE FOR TONIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL POSSIBLE...IN THE FORM OF A FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS AND/OR DERECHO. ELEVATED CAPES OF 2500 TO 4000 J/KG...AND 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS...CIN VALUES OF 200 TO 250 J/KG...WILL
AGAIN BE A LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...IF A SEVERE MCS/DERECHO DOES
FORM TO THE WEST...THE LARGE CIN WOULD NOT PREVENT IT FROM MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.00
INCHES...SOMETIMES HIGHER...WILL ALSO MEAN THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...DESPITE THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF ANY MCS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED RANGE MODELS HAVE A MORE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WIH A SUBSEQUENTLY MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OVER THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MAY INTERACT WITH
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SO WILL GO WITH 30
POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
MIDWEEK...AND RETREATS A BIT NORTHWARD. STILL...SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD USHER A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. POSSIBLE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION MAY BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...SO WILL GO WITH 30 POPS AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

WOOD

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 19, 3:28 PM CDT, 5 hours 52 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 20, 1:18 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Columbia	42 min
Jul 20, 1:58 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Columbia, Dane, Iowa, Sauk	62 min
Jul 20, 2:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Green, Lafayette	56 min
Jul 20, 2:25 AM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MKX		2 hr
Jul 20, 2:44 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dodge, Jefferson, Rock	61 min
Jul 20, 2:57 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dane	18 min
Jul 20, 3:02 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Walworth, Waukesha	58 min
Jul 20, 3:21 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Washington	39 min
Jul 20, 3:53 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Kenosha, Milwaukee, Racine	42 min
Jul 20, 4:26 AM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MKX		37 min
Jul 20, 6:14 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dane, Green	31 min
Jul 20, 6:37 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Green, Rock	38 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Wisconsin, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.