Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
445 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...SEVERE WEATHER, ROUND ONE,
HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER
ROUND TONIGHT.  THIS FIRST ROUND OF SEVERE HAS WORKED OVER THE ATM
OVER THE EXTEME EAST AND THE LOWER ATM WILL STABILIZE A LITTLE AFTER
SS. NEVERTHELESS, WE REAMIN BOXED UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT AND //NAM
INDICATES STORMS OVER CENTRAL NC WILL NOT MOV OFFSHORE UNTIL AFT
09Z.   //NAM HAS PERFORMED WELL THIS WEEK, INCLUDING THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE CONVECTION AND IS THE PREFERRED MODEL OVER THE SHORT TERM.
TMRW MORNING WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE
OBX.  THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LINGER ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW
AND FINALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING A NICE
FINISH TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTE
THROUGH THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE REGIME. H5 CLOSED LOW DIGGING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BEAR WATCHING ALL WEEK, BUT MODELS
HAVE BEGIN INCHING IT EASTWARD WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.  ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND IS THE
BASIS FOR POPS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE CONVECTION WITH
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. NKT GUSTED EARLIER TO 49 KT WITH
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF HAIL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. VISIBILITIES AROUND
TSTMS WILL ALSO BRIEFLY DROP TO 1NM OR LESS. TSTMS COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z WITH ALL PCPN ENDING BY 08Z. WE
ARE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR AFTER THE CONVECTION AS WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE PRECLUDES WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS PICKING AND WILL SEE A PERIOD OF 25-30 KT AS
FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. GRAD WILL DECREASE AFTER
12Z SAT AS FRONT STALLS AND GRAD RELAXES. IT WILL TAKE SEAS A AWHILE
TO SUBSIDE THOUGH. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH SAT EVENING TURNING
THE FLOW AROUND TO THE NE AT 10-15 KT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH EVEN LIGHTER WINDS/SEAS
NOW EXPECTED TUE AND WED. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL 03Z FOR ALL COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ130-135-150 UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ152-154-156 UNTIL 5 PM SATURDAY.
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ158 UNTIL 2 PM SATURDAY.

TK/JE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
426 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-270830-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
426 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-170-270830-
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO SURF CITY NC FROM 20 TO
40 NM-
426 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 8 FEET
BY LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
KNOTS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SAT
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NCZ095-098-103-104-270830-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
426 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL WILL ALSO PRODUCE A
MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES TODAY
FROM CAPE HATTERAS SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

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